Topic ID 3530
seeing its a massive topic in the press every day it seems at the moment how do people on here feel about the effects of the current market? I have noticed that this week seems to be a turning point in the Hertford housing market, or is it? I have noticed that a couple of estate agents have re-taken photos of property's and also lowering the price of some by up to £20k. Also read today that sales have fallen from 80% to 50% (estate agent quoted that so probably more hahaha). Predictions are that 4000 estate agents to shut up shop in UK this year. Is the credit crunch starting to hit Hertford? Sorry to start the week with such doom and gloom.
Reply ID 51585
quote:Yes, but mainly because it's being reported and people are just sittin still waiting to see what happens. A self-fulfilling prophecy. Advertised house prices are staying reasonably stable and if you can wait, might be achieved. However, if you want to move and can do a deal through the chain, the actual selling price might be much lower, just to make it happen. In other words, everybody agrees to drop at once. That will mean somebody who hasn't yet sold, selling at a bargain price, but it's all relative. It is however, press driven. There appears to be no problem getting a mortgage at all and unless one lives purely on credit cards, rather than income, the alarming stories seem to be all wind and trousers.
Originally posted by teddylad
seeing its a massive topic in the press every day it seems at the moment how do people on here feel about the effects of the current market? I have noticed that this week seems to be a turning point in the Hertford housing market, or is it? I have noticed that a couple of estate agents have re-taken photos of property's and also lowering the price of some by up to £20k. Also read today that sales have fallen from 80% to 50% (estate agent quoted that so probably more hahaha). Predictions are that 4000 estate agents to shut up shop in UK this year. Is the credit crunch starting to hit Hertford? Sorry to start the week with such doom and gloom.
Reply ID 51586
You can check to see if prices are really being cut on http://propertysnake.co.uk/ put in a postcode area and you can see all the prices that have been cut. Of course it won't show you new to the market property with lower prices. A quick peruse of SG13 and SG14 shows, not much really.
Reply ID 51587
quote:Unfortunately it only shows advertised prices. Many property owners are doing deals through the chain which mean achieved prices are lower. It's estate agency like it used to be. Yippee!
Originally posted by Jackanapes
You can check to see if prices are really being cut on http://propertysnake.co.uk/ put in a postcode area and you can see all the prices that have been cut. Of course it won't show you new to the market property with lower prices. A quick peruse of SG13 and SG14 shows, not much really.
Reply ID 51589
quote:Personally I say bring it on. As far as I can see, it is something that needs to happen. House (and flat) prices are just ridiculous at the moment (everywhere, not just Hertford) and people are stretching themselves to the limit to buy the crumbiest of properties. I bought my first property around 12 years ago - a two bed terraced house - for £60k whilst I was a student. (yes - it was cheaper to buy than rent then!). These days you would struggle to buy the same property as a couple on a combined income of £60k a year... It seems this government have built an economy on the imagined wealth brought about by inflated house prices and encouraged Buy To Let investors to buy the plethora of new build rabbit hutches, sorry luxury apartments that have sprung up around the country (and this town). Now they have been rumbled and are cacking their pants. The sooner it all goes back to sane levels the better - with the bonus of getting rid of all these fly by night spiv property developers.
Originally posted by teddylad
seeing its a massive topic in the press every day it seems at the moment how do people on here feel about the effects of the current market? I have noticed that this week seems to be a turning point in the Hertford housing market, or is it? I have noticed that a couple of estate agents have re-taken photos of property's and also lowering the price of some by up to £20k. Also read today that sales have fallen from 80% to 50% (estate agent quoted that so probably more hahaha). Predictions are that 4000 estate agents to shut up shop in UK this year. Is the credit crunch starting to hit Hertford? Sorry to start the week with such doom and gloom.
Reply ID 51591
quote:Probably a little unfair to blame this current government for that, particularly. This situation was originally caused by a Conservative policy of many moons ago. The current gov have not been politically brave enough to correct it (it being potentially an election loser), but they did announce that it was their intent to bring property prices down by 20%, before all this started. I don't think they can claim credit for it having happened now, however, though I'm sure someone will think of a way.[:D]
Personally I say bring it on. As far as I can see, it is something that needs to happen. House (and flat) prices are just ridiculous at the moment (everywhere, not just Hertford) and people are stretching themselves to the limit to buy the crumbiest of properties. I bought my first property around 12 years ago - a two bed terraced house - for £60k whilst I was a student. (yes - it was cheaper to buy than rent then!). These days you would struggle to buy the same property as a couple on a combined income of £60k a year... It seems this government have built an economy on the imagined wealth brought about by inflated house prices and encouraged Buy To Let investors to buy the plethora of new build rabbit hutches, sorry luxury apartments that have sprung up around the country (and this town). Now they have been rumbled and are cacking their pants. The sooner it all goes back to sane levels the better - with the bonus of getting rid of all these fly by night spiv property developers.
Reply ID 51593
Probably best not go down the politics route! It is crazy though when these days new build 2 bed terraced houses are selling for £350,000 in Hertford. It wasn't that long ago you could get a similar house for the same price as a nice car!
Reply ID 51595
quote:Oh yes. I remember my dad's colleagues telling him he was mad to spend £7,500 on a four bedroom detached in the Hertford area, because "that's a whole year's salary!" Ten years later I bought my first house for £17,500. Eighteen months after that, I resold it for £37,000! Why? No more local authority housing.
Originally posted by aubend
Probably best not go down the politics route! It is crazy though when these days new build 2 bed terraced houses are selling for £350,000 in Hertford. It wasn't that long ago you could get a similar house for the same price as a nice car!
Reply ID 51596
quote:What about all those that have had to bust a gut to get on the property ladder and will be left with negative equity should the market tumble?
Originally posted by aubendquote:Personally I say bring it on. As far as I can see, it is something that needs to happen. House (and flat) prices are just ridiculous at the moment (everywhere, not just Hertford) and people are stretching themselves to the limit to buy the crumbiest of properties. I bought my first property around 12 years ago - a two bed terraced house - for £60k whilst I was a student. (yes - it was cheaper to buy than rent then!). These days you would struggle to buy the same property as a couple on a combined income of £60k a year... It seems this government have built an economy on the imagined wealth brought about by inflated house prices and encouraged Buy To Let investors to buy the plethora of new build rabbit hutches, sorry luxury apartments that have sprung up around the country (and this town). Now they have been rumbled and are cacking their pants. The sooner it all goes back to sane levels the better - with the bonus of getting rid of all these fly by night spiv property developers.
Originally posted by teddylad
seeing its a massive topic in the press every day it seems at the moment how do people on here feel about the effects of the current market? I have noticed that this week seems to be a turning point in the Hertford housing market, or is it? I have noticed that a couple of estate agents have re-taken photos of property's and also lowering the price of some by up to £20k. Also read today that sales have fallen from 80% to 50% (estate agent quoted that so probably more hahaha). Predictions are that 4000 estate agents to shut up shop in UK this year. Is the credit crunch starting to hit Hertford? Sorry to start the week with such doom and gloom.
Reply ID 51597
quote:Slightly different scenario. The previous housing crisis was caused by mass unemployment, 17% interst rates, huge inflation elsewhere and when 100% mortgages were common. This is just lack of confidence in the money markets. Property would have to fall more than 20% and be combined with widespread job losses to have the same effect. For most it will simply mean allowing longer to sell a house, or just staying put for a year or two. To illustrate how much of it is hyped, check out HSBC's offers at the moment. Falling over themselves to offer fixed rates, in expectation of lowered interest in the future. Mortgages are only harder to get if you are a high risk borrower.
Originally posted by Victor Meldrew
What about all those that have had to bust a gut to get on the property ladder and will be left with negative equity should the market tumble?
Reply ID 51599
Ha, you should all know by now that I am high risk full stop![:)]
Reply ID 51604
I've read this thread with interest. I have a single friend with a small mortgage who is seriously considering selling her two-bed house on Foxholes, investing the money and using the interest to pay her rent while she sits and waits for property prices to drop until her lump sum can buy her a bigger house closer to town. How risky would this be, in Hertford, do you think? Is Hertford a little bit insulated from the general house price drop because of our two stations and our status as a commuter town with a good quality of life? I'd be pleased to read your comments.
Reply ID 51605
quote:As long as London has a strong economy and Hertford remains within an hour of the capital, prices will always be very high in comparison to the rest of the country.
Originally posted by Rachel
I've read this thread with interest. I have a single friend with a small mortgage who is seriously considering selling her two-bed house on Foxholes, investing the money and using the interest to pay her rent while she sits and waits for property prices to drop until her lump sum can buy her a bigger house closer to town. How risky would this be, in Hertford, do you think? Is Hertford a little bit insulated from the general house price drop because of our two stations and our status as a commuter town with a good quality of life? I'd be pleased to read your comments.
Reply ID 51607
quote:The risk is a) This is the blip and will go no further in which case she'd be selling in the trough and buying on the upturn, or b) borrowing becomes more difficult, which at the moment it isn't. We considered much the same, but a closer look at the market revealed that it may not stay low for very long. Over a few years, rather than months, property has always held it's own since the war. It's only if you absolutely have to sell in a downturn that it goes wrong. Selling at the moment takes time, unless she discounts enough to make it a bargain, in which case she loses the advantage she seeks to gain. I'd say, unless you've got cash right now, no mortgage and nothing to sell, you've missed the boat.
Originally posted by Rachel
I've read this thread with interest. I have a single friend with a small mortgage who is seriously considering selling her two-bed house on Foxholes, investing the money and using the interest to pay her rent while she sits and waits for property prices to drop until her lump sum can buy her a bigger house closer to town. How risky would this be, in Hertford, do you think? Is Hertford a little bit insulated from the general house price drop because of our two stations and our status as a commuter town with a good quality of life? I'd be pleased to read your comments.
Reply ID 51609
Thank you, guys. I will send my friend a link to this thread.
Reply ID 51613
As she's only got a small mortgage, she may as well stay put as renting will cost her more than her mortgage and any percentage reduction in her house value will be matched by the same percentage of the bigger house she wants to buy.
Reply ID 51615
quote:I would say the safest option is to let the market find its course first. The property market normally takes a few years to go through any cycle. So there is no reason why your friend can't let the market stroll on for another 6-12 months. If it still shows a downward trend, then jump off. Same for when its rising. Only buy when there has been 6-12 months of growth. Not two or three. The gains won't be as big, but neither will the risk. Let someone else claim all the glory for timing the sell and re-buy perfectly. Because for every one of those, their are 20 who get it wrong.
Originally posted by Rachel
I've read this thread with interest. I have a single friend with a small mortgage who is seriously considering selling her two-bed house on Foxholes, investing the money and using the interest to pay her rent while she sits and waits for property prices to drop until her lump sum can buy her a bigger house closer to town. How risky would this be, in Hertford, do you think? Is Hertford a little bit insulated from the general house price drop because of our two stations and our status as a commuter town with a good quality of life? I'd be pleased to read your comments.
Reply ID 51622
quote:My experience of Hertford prices is that the stations, schools, low crime and general amenities all combine to keep this lovely little market town free from any market slump. Some areas are better than others, of course, and Bengeo appears to be totally immune from any sort of house price slump. Having said that, I've just checked the prices that some of the terraced properties in Byde Street have sold for over the last few years and it's getting ridiculous now - £350k plus for a two bed terrace? Bonkers in my opinion but if people are prepared to pay it, then so be it.[:0] My view is that you live in a place because it's a home, not an investment. If you need to move for practical reasons, then move. If you want to move to a period cottage from your new build, then move but if you're moving to make money, then you're doing it for the wrong reasons and don't really deserve sympathy if you lose out. After all, how much sympathy do we give property developers? That's all you really are if you're buying and selling houses for profit.[}:)]
Originally posted by Rachel
I've read this thread with interest. I have a single friend with a small mortgage who is seriously considering selling her two-bed house on Foxholes, investing the money and using the interest to pay her rent while she sits and waits for property prices to drop until her lump sum can buy her a bigger house closer to town. How risky would this be, in Hertford, do you think? Is Hertford a little bit insulated from the general house price drop because of our two stations and our status as a commuter town with a good quality of life? I'd be pleased to read your comments.
Reply ID 51628
Not sure whether this is wishful thinking or not [;)] but I wonder if there will be a slowdown/downturn in the newbuild flats in town, which everyone knows you pay a premium for and then wait for the market to rise so that they don't lose value? As period properties are relatively few and far between, they may be better protected against a drop in prices, as there are of course a finite number of them. I'm not sure - on the one hand it would be great if they did fall by 10% or so, just to make property slightly more affordable, but on the other I really don't want to lose money on mine (not because I'm greedy - I live in a 1 bed flat - but because I really don't want to fall into negative equity).
Reply ID 51635
quote:Some agents have said to me that the premium luxury flats are getting hard to move, but the establshed, slightly cheaper ones are still in demand.
Originally posted by Jo S
Not sure whether this is wishful thinking or not [;)] but I wonder if there will be a slowdown/downturn in the newbuild flats in town, which everyone knows you pay a premium for and then wait for the market to rise so that they don't lose value? As period properties are relatively few and far between, they may be better protected against a drop in prices, as there are of course a finite number of them. I'm not sure - on the one hand it would be great if they did fall by 10% or so, just to make property slightly more affordable, but on the other I really don't want to lose money on mine (not because I'm greedy - I live in a 1 bed flat - but because I really don't want to fall into negative equity).
Reply ID 51639
Bit simplistic I know but right now Flats bad, older Houses(Victorian/Edwardian) good . And check the Land Reg site. U get the real buying & selling price not what SOates like to tell you what the property is worth...
Reply ID 51658
quote:If anything, it will suffer more, as the prices are already over inflated. Its always had those amenities, but in the early 90's the Hertford prices suffered worse drops than Ware. I remember buying my Bluecoats flat in 94 for £42k and at the time, it was more expensive than any other block in town!
Originally posted by 2929paul [My experience of Hertford prices is that the stations, schools, low crime and general amenities all combine to keep this lovely little market town free from any market slump.
Reply ID 51662
quote:I still don't think you will see prices falling for property in Hertford. They may stop rising but I don't think they'll fall.
Originally posted by Dudequote:If anything, it will suffer more, as the prices are already over inflated. Its always had those amenities, but in the early 90's the Hertford prices suffered worse drops than Ware. I remember buying my Bluecoats flat in 94 for £42k and at the time, it was more expensive than any other block in town!
Originally posted by 2929paul [My experience of Hertford prices is that the stations, schools, low crime and general amenities all combine to keep this lovely little market town free from any market slump.
Reply ID 51666
quote:What makes you think Hertford is immune to price falls?
Originally posted by 2929paul
I still don't think you will see prices falling for property in Hertford. They may stop rising but I don't think they'll fall.
Reply ID 51669
quote:I thought that in 1990. Lucky I waited! Hertford is no more immune than any other home county commuter town.
Originally posted by 2929paulquote:I still don't think you will see prices falling for property in Hertford. They may stop rising but I don't think they'll fall.
Originally posted by Dudequote:If anything, it will suffer more, as the prices are already over inflated. Its always had those amenities, but in the early 90's the Hertford prices suffered worse drops than Ware. I remember buying my Bluecoats flat in 94 for £42k and at the time, it was more expensive than any other block in town!
Originally posted by 2929paul [My experience of Hertford prices is that the stations, schools, low crime and general amenities all combine to keep this lovely little market town free from any market slump.
Reply ID 51678
quote:Demand and supply.
Originally posted by aubendquote:What makes you think Hertford is immune to price falls?
Originally posted by 2929paul
I still don't think you will see prices falling for property in Hertford. They may stop rising but I don't think they'll fall.
Reply ID 51679
Hertford is a great place to live but we still need our share of First Time Buyers and Buy to Let investors to support the market. These two groups have been hit hard with the withdrawal of various products by lenders in recent weeks. Supply and demand? Well this time last year I was thinking of moving and took an interest in what was available. Shepherds, for example, would have approximately 30 - 45 properties listed throughout the year. I looked at their website this weekend and was very surprised to see that there were 100 properties available!
Reply ID 51683
quote:The fundamental problem the housing market has had for the past 20 years is that environmentalists have been winning the green belt battle. That means that no where near enough new housing has been being built for those currently in the innner suburbs/outer suburbs to move up to. Because of that, they've been sat in the houses they've owned for decades now with no where to move to. Because they don't move, and when they do the amount of buyers looking for a property of that type is huge, supply is limited pushing up prices. Add in the availability of cheap credit and the expansion of the buy-to-let market in recent years, and you have a recipe for the current situation... plenty of demand and but no supply that is affordable. The worst thing about it is that because the upper echelons of the chain have no where new to move to, the entire thing stalls and everyone is stuck in their own band...including potential first time buyers because they can't find somewhere that is affordable. The only way that the housing problem is going to be overcome is by expanding towns like Hertford, St Albans etc whether the residents like it or not - and no just by 100 houses here and there... I mean by 5,000 - 10,000 homes at least PER town. The major problem is that the current slow down isn't because of over supply - far from it... the post above me makes that perfectly clear. It's because the lack of NEW supply just doesn't exist and because of that, house prices have gone through the roof. A similar thing happened in Sydney earlier this decade... House prices there make the current price situation look like pocket money, but regardless, once the housing market reached unaffordable levels, it fell by 20 per cent over a 6 months. And then rose by 20 per cent during the next six months till it became unaffordable again... Granted it's a different supply problem over there (distance from the city centre) but it's the same dynamic. No where new for the top echelon on the housing ladder to move to, a stalled chain, unaffordable but available supply and first time buyers not even getting a look in. What's happening over there now? The market undulates within that top 20 per cent... and it will continue to till the supply problem is sorted... just like it will over here.
Originally posted by Sarah Hughes
Hertford is a great place to live but we still need our share of First Time Buyers and Buy to Let investors to support the market. These two groups have been hit hard with the withdrawal of various products by lenders in recent weeks. Supply and demand? Well this time last year I was thinking of moving and took an interest in what was available. Shepherds, for example, would have approximately 30 - 45 properties listed throughout the year. I looked at their website this weekend and was very surprised to see that there were 100 properties available!
Reply ID 51686
quote:Curious. in over a year of looking we have only seen two properties which we would even consider, despite quite a broad budget for a 3 bed. There has been the traditional upturn in new instructions for spring, but prior to that, very little has been marketed, if you discount overpriced new builds and flats.
Originally posted by Sarah Hughes
Hertford is a great place to live but we still need our share of First Time Buyers and Buy to Let investors to support the market. These two groups have been hit hard with the withdrawal of various products by lenders in recent weeks. Supply and demand? Well this time last year I was thinking of moving and took an interest in what was available. Shepherds, for example, would have approximately 30 - 45 properties listed throughout the year. I looked at their website this weekend and was very surprised to see that there were 100 properties available!
Reply ID 51709
quote:Congrats Shunt - notice you've sold your house! [:D][:D][:D]
Originally posted by shuntquote:Curious. in over a year of looking we have only seen two properties which we would even consider, despite quite a broad budget for a 3 bed. There has been the traditional upturn in new instructions for spring, but prior to that, very little has been marketed, if you discount overpriced new builds and flats.
Originally posted by Sarah Hughes
Hertford is a great place to live but we still need our share of First Time Buyers and Buy to Let investors to support the market. These two groups have been hit hard with the withdrawal of various products by lenders in recent weeks. Supply and demand? Well this time last year I was thinking of moving and took an interest in what was available. Shepherds, for example, would have approximately 30 - 45 properties listed throughout the year. I looked at their website this weekend and was very surprised to see that there were 100 properties available!
Reply ID 51712
aubend aubend aubend sane levels dont understand. you criticise my punctuation look closer to home.
Reply ID 51713
quote:[?][?][?][?]
Originally posted by btj
aubend aubend aubend sane levels dont understand. you criticise my punctuation look closer to home.
Reply ID 51715
DFTT!!
Reply ID 51719
quote:Thanks for that. Knew it would go in the end, simply because it's been priced cheaper than almost any other 3 bed, 7 room house. Top tip for anyone else though. Don't market at an odd time of year, unless the market's already busy. People won't buy unless they have had several to compare it to.
Congrats Shunt - notice you've sold your house! [:D][:D][:D]
Reply ID 51720
Back to the "credit crunch" though. It seems to be a change of attitude, rather than anything else. We've talked of housing here. On the news it's price of food and petrol. None of these would be helped by easier credit. Some specific items have become more expensive and that has led to a slowing of spending in general. Not a bad thing, if it happens in a controlled way. Britain has been somewhat hypocritical to date. Booming economies are not environmentally friendly.
Reply ID 51721
quote:Good to hear shunt hope it goes smoothly and you are not going too far away!
Originally posted by shunt
quote:Thanks for that. Knew it would go in the end, simply because it's been priced cheaper than almost any other 3 bed, 7 room house. Top tip for anyone else though. Don't market at an odd time of year, unless the market's already busy. People won't buy unless they have had several to compare it to.
Congrats Shunt - notice you've sold your house! [:D][:D][:D]
Reply ID 51756
quote:Rachel - my sister-in-law has just sold her flat for a tidy profit for exactly the same reasons that your friend is considering doing. She admits that she is taking a massive gamble as there is a lot of scary stories going about at the moment and she is unsure whether the scare-mongers might be right. Personally I think she should have stayed put as she has no reason to move. I hope that she has made the right decision.
Originally posted by Rachel
I've read this thread with interest. I have a single friend with a small mortgage who is seriously considering selling her two-bed house on Foxholes, investing the money and using the interest to pay her rent while she sits and waits for property prices to drop until her lump sum can buy her a bigger house closer to town. How risky would this be, in Hertford, do you think? Is Hertford a little bit insulated from the general house price drop because of our two stations and our status as a commuter town with a good quality of life? I'd be pleased to read your comments.
Reply ID 51775
I'm inclined to think that one shouldn't take a punt on the roof over your head. Unless there is a need to upsize (and not enough funds available) one has to ask if it's a smart idea. Also to consider, will the interest (after tax) cover the rent?
Reply ID 51780
I'd agree - the key thing is, if you dont have to move, then whatever happens to house prices is irrelevant. The people who are going to get hurt by the current crash are those who are forcecd to move, due to needing to upsize or divorce or relocation etc Did you also hear about land prices in the south east doubling in the last year? I think the report was a joke - it talks about prices now being 6k an acre in the south east. where on earth can you get an acre for a mere 6k!!?
Reply ID 51781
quote:On the upsizing, a market drop can help. If your property devalues by a x%, so does the one above it, not by the same amount, but by the same percentage. Hence the gap a narrows and a smaller mortgage is required to make the leap. It's downsizing that loses out, plus new builds and commercial sales. For most of us (assumimg not over-mortgaged) it's good news. Unfortunately, we are all still conditioned by a time when the government needed to sell a lot of public stock to balance it's books, owned the press and was able to convince us all that rising property prices would make us all filthy rich. It does the opposite, saps income and increases lending requirements.
Originally posted by codek2
I'd agree - the key thing is, if you dont have to move, then whatever happens to house prices is irrelevant. The people who are going to get hurt by the current crash are those who are forcecd to move, due to needing to upsize or divorce or relocation etc Did you also hear about land prices in the south east doubling in the last year? I think the report was a joke - it talks about prices now being 6k an acre in the south east. where on earth can you get an acre for a mere 6k!!?
Reply ID 51782
quote:I thought this was for agricultural land.
Originally posted by codek2
Did you also hear about land prices in the south east doubling in the last year? I think the report was a joke - it talks about prices now being 6k an acre in the south east. where on earth can you get an acre for a mere 6k!!?
Reply ID 51783
quote:Yes It is. 20x+ that for land with planning permission or brownfield; But you wont even find aggricultural land around here for 6k an acre - i've been looking hard and far!
Originally posted by Stevequote:I thought this was for agricultural land.
Originally posted by codek2
Did you also hear about land prices in the south east doubling in the last year? I think the report was a joke - it talks about prices now being 6k an acre in the south east. where on earth can you get an acre for a mere 6k!!?
Reply ID 51784
quote:Thats because the next big thing will be grow your own again. Allotments and The Good Life are going to make a comeback, mark my words!
Originally posted by Stevequote:I thought this was for agricultural land.
Originally posted by codek2
Did you also hear about land prices in the south east doubling in the last year? I think the report was a joke - it talks about prices now being 6k an acre in the south east. where on earth can you get an acre for a mere 6k!!?
Reply ID 51787
Allotments and grow your own have _already_ made their comeback.. This year seeds for veg outsold those for flowers for the first time.
Reply ID 51788
This topis is going a bit carrot crunch
Reply ID 51843
Seen today on the news. A couple claiming they cannot afford the extra £170 per month on their mortgage whilst sitting in front of a shelf with at least £1000 worth of DVDs on. For all that they bleat, people like this get what they deserve.
Reply ID 51844
they're probably nigel knock-off's! £170 extra a month is quite a lot extra for many people! It has to be said that the government offering these bonds is a sign of desperation - we'll look back on this in 10 years time and say what on earth were they doing.. It's not an exageration to say we're probably witnessing the biggest financial and housing crisis ever in the uk.
Reply ID 51869
quote:Are you sure? I'd say it's more a corrective restoration of sanity. The so called "Credit Crunch" hits those who seek high percentage, high risk mortgages and the banks who have supplied them. That madness was set in place more than fifteen years ago, is responsible for our ludicrously overpriced housing costs and was always a ticking timebomb which would require diffusing at some point. It's been put off simply because of a lack of social housing to cover the fallout. For those who have average mortgages, stable employment and reasonable credit history, the effect is unnoticable. Mortgages are not hard to get, credit is not expensive or difficult. Mr & Mrs Average Hertford's personal banking remains unchanged, their wealth untouched. In the long term, they might even be better off.
Originally posted by codek2
they're probably nigel knock-off's! £170 extra a month is quite a lot extra for many people! It has to be said that the government offering these bonds is a sign of desperation - we'll look back on this in 10 years time and say what on earth were they doing.. It's not an exageration to say we're probably witnessing the biggest financial and housing crisis ever in the uk.
Reply ID 51871
quote:True, although it's not as cheap as it was two years ago. For those of us coming off two-year fixed rate deals at the moment, there's quite a payment hike. The arrangement fees have rocketed too (in effect, you're paying a larger fee to secure a worse rate - go figure!)
Originally posted by shunt
Mortgages are not hard to get, credit is not expensive or difficult.
quote:Perhaps I'm not Mr Average Hertford, but I've no idea what you mean by this.
Mr & Mrs Average Hertford's personal banking remains unchanged, their wealth untouched. In the long term, they might even be better off.
Reply ID 51872
By average Hertford I mean, not at the extreme ends of the financial scale, solvent, working, two or three credit cards, with a mortgage less than 80% of value. We actually got a better rate than the last and fixed. Arrangement fee £99. By comparison, 20 odd years ago, £250 arrangement fee and 17.5% variable. Things ain't what they used to be.
Reply ID 51875
quote:Ok, I guess I am Mr Average, then! Interesting that you found a better deal this time round; I've found the opposite. I wonder if my previous deal was great or yours was poor?
Originally posted by shunt
By average Hertford I mean, not at the extreme ends of the financial scale, solvent, working, two or three credit cards, with a mortgage less than 80% of value. We actually got a better rate than the last and fixed. Arrangement fee £99. By comparison, 20 odd years ago, £250 arrangement fee and 17.5% variable. Things ain't what they used to be.
Reply ID 51920
I read this thread with interest as mortgages are my business (http://www.lsmortgages.com). The reality is that the market has got much tighter and it is generally tougher to get high loan to value mortgages. The lenders can 'cherry pick' the better clients with lower risk. The other fact is that if you are coming off a fixed rate deal and want to book a new fixed rate deal, you are likely to be paying 1.5 to 2% above your old rate. 2% interest on a £200k mortgage calculates to £333 per month. This is a fact of todays market and everyone should be aware of their options. Rates are volatile and shopping around is a must. Up front fees should be taken into consideration and your 'real cost' (including fees) should be calculated for every option. It can really be an eye opener if this process is done properly.
Reply ID 51921
So would a variable rate mortgage be better? Either way it's probably a gamble.
Reply ID 51922
At the moment, I would think a tracker would be better, as the BOE interest rate isn't high and is likely to get lower. Our fixed rate deal comes to an end next January and we are likely to be paying very little extra as we will move on to a tracker based on BOE rate + 0.45%.
Reply ID 51923
quote:Absolutely. One fee which is frequently overlooked is the charge to transfer when the fixed rate period is up. It's almost certain you'll want to at that point.[:D] Falling prices offset interest though. For instance, if you bugeted for a £400k mortgage a year ago and now need £300k to buy a similar property, the extra interest is covered. As things stand in Hertford at the moment, that's entirely possible. Ultimately, mortgages have to be viewed as rent, but with higher risks. You don't get to make money you can spend out of your main property, you just get somewhere to live which you can paint any colour you like.
Originally posted by David Yates
I read this thread with interest as mortgages are my business (http://www.lsmortgages.com). The reality is that the market has got much tighter and it is generally tougher to get high loan to value mortgages. The lenders can 'cherry pick' the better clients with lower risk. The other fact is that if you are coming off a fixed rate deal and want to book a new fixed rate deal, you are likely to be paying 1.5 to 2% above your old rate. 2% interest on a £200k mortgage calculates to £333 per month. This is a fact of todays market and everyone should be aware of their options. Rates are volatile and shopping around is a must. Up front fees should be taken into consideration and your 'real cost' (including fees) should be calculated for every option. It can really be an eye opener if this process is done properly.
Reply ID 51925
There are some good trackers around - a base rate tracker will change as the base rate does - beware the 'discount' rate deals which only change when the lender decides to change their variable rate. Many lenders have tracker rates at over 1% above the base rate currently for people re-mortgaging - your own lender is the best place to start as they may be offering 'special deals' to current customers. Then get their 'best offer' compared by a broker that doesn't charge a fee. That way you know you are getting the best out there. At the end of last summer I did a number of base rate tracker re-mortgages with a particular lender at 0.12% above the base rate - no arrangement fee, free legals, free valuation and no fee for ending the mortgage or overpaying - Happy days! Bottom line is people like to know what they are going to be paying and fixed rates remain very popular. It's always down to a personal choice as nobody really knows how long the current volatility will last or what is going to happen to rates. I know that if I knew I'd be in Barbados, not in an office on Fore Street looking out at the rain!
Reply ID 51931
I remortgaged around the time of the credit crunch for approx 60-70% value with unblemished credit history. Looking at the economic climate at the time, I opted for a tracker. As I ended up staying with the same lender, there was no exit fee, no arrangement fee, no admin fee. The broker didn't even charge me a fee for finding the deal! I switched to a tracker tracking just above the base rate. My mortgage repayments have only been reducing since the remortgage. I'm not gloating, and I'm not clever, I'm just lucky (so far). Could have fixed, but I took a gamble. The gamble I took when deciding to purchase a small property in Bengeo several years ago when I could have got a larger property elsewhere for less money could have gone quite the opposite way had the credit crunch happened a few years earlier. It's all down to the individual's comfort with risk, and personal accountability. None of us know for sure how the housing market or economic climate will change from one day, week or year to another.
Reply ID 51954
I was really lucky - my Mortgage currently tracks BELOW that base rate [:D] Not sure if I will get such a good deal when the tracker ends in September [:(]
Reply ID 51964
I very much doubt it. New trackers are 1% (and more) above the base rate. Get a quote from you lender about 8 weeks before your deal expires and then, if you wish, give me a call. If there is a better deal out there then I can help. If not, I'll tell you. I won't charge a fee either way. Can't say fairer than that eh? http://www.lsmortgages.com
Reply ID 52105
Just as an indicator of why this is not so much a "Credit Crunch" as an uncomfortable return to fiscal sanity;- in the last 12 years, house prices have tripled, whereas wages have risen 63%. The shortfall has been carried on credit. A change was always inevitable. How fast it happens will determine the effects on the individual. Despite criticism and unpopularity of some of the current dampening tactics of government, I do understand the aim. Slowing the change turns a potential financial disaster into a good thing and stabilises an economy which broke loose in the eighties and has rampaged out of control ever since.
Reply ID 52109
quote:So Shunt, it wasn't the media after all (as you've quoted before on this thread)that has created this situation, but good old fashioned economic factors.
Originally posted by shunt
Just as an indicator of why this is not so much a "Credit Crunch" as an uncomfortable return to fiscal sanity;- in the last 12 years, house prices have tripled, whereas wages have risen 63%. The shortfall has been carried on credit. A change was always inevitable. How fast it happens will determine the effects on the individual. Despite criticism and unpopularity of some of the current dampening tactics of government, I do understand the aim. Slowing the change turns a potential financial disaster into a good thing and stabilises an economy which broke loose in the eighties and has rampaged out of control ever since.
Reply ID 52124
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/skynews/20080430/tuk-house-prices-fall-by-45-a-day-45dbed5.html Interesting - homes in Herts have so far been least affected by the falling prices.
Reply ID 52126
talking of price of homes falling a new website i read about last week http://www.propertysnake.co.uk. not sure how they get their info but makes for interesting reading on hertford.
Reply ID 52141
quote:No, the media is stil the vital key to how it will go. We can talk ourselves into recession, destroy the confidence which makes the markets work with stories of doom and gloom and thus ensure it will become true. For instance, the press report 1.7% growth as a negative. Actually, that's pretty good. Likewise, they report redundancies in RBS, but fail to balance it with the statistic that employment levels are higher in the UK than at any point since Edward Heath became PM. Things are still really good, just not as falsely inflated as they were.
Originally posted by azzzaquote:So Shunt, it wasn't the media after all (as you've quoted before on this thread)that has created this situation, but good old fashioned economic factors.
Originally posted by shunt
Just as an indicator of why this is not so much a "Credit Crunch" as an uncomfortable return to fiscal sanity;- in the last 12 years, house prices have tripled, whereas wages have risen 63%. The shortfall has been carried on credit. A change was always inevitable. How fast it happens will determine the effects on the individual. Despite criticism and unpopularity of some of the current dampening tactics of government, I do understand the aim. Slowing the change turns a potential financial disaster into a good thing and stabilises an economy which broke loose in the eighties and has rampaged out of control ever since.
Reply ID 52149
quote:Either you are a spin doctor for the government or you are deluded?... as you yourself said in your last-but-one-post, 'The shortfall has been carried on credit' this is a FACT and not something hyped by the media. Mortgages are 50% down from this time last year and inflation is getting out of control .. again, FACT ... you quote;'so things are still really good' ... try telling that to a mortgage broker, Solicitor, estate agent ... the list goes on. ... this is not a media hyped recession at all, but a self imposed one caused by the greedy.
Originally posted by shuntquote:No, the media is stil the vital key to how it will go. We can talk ourselves into recession, destroy the confidence which makes the markets work with stories of doom and gloom and thus ensure it will become true. For instance, the press report 1.7% growth as a negative. Actually, that's pretty good. Likewise, they report redundancies in RBS, but fail to balance it with the statistic that employment levels are higher in the UK than at any point since Edward Heath became PM. Things are still really good, just not as falsely inflated as they were.
Originally posted by azzzaquote:So Shunt, it wasn't the media after all (as you've quoted before on this thread)that has created this situation, but good old fashioned economic factors.
Originally posted by shunt
Just as an indicator of why this is not so much a "Credit Crunch" as an uncomfortable return to fiscal sanity;- in the last 12 years, house prices have tripled, whereas wages have risen 63%. The shortfall has been carried on credit. A change was always inevitable. How fast it happens will determine the effects on the individual. Despite criticism and unpopularity of some of the current dampening tactics of government, I do understand the aim. Slowing the change turns a potential financial disaster into a good thing and stabilises an economy which broke loose in the eighties and has rampaged out of control ever since.
Reply ID 52154
quote:Hmmm.....I was a young father during both the recessions of the eighties. We do not have 17.5% interest rates, mass unemployment, negative growth, 15% inflation, riots in the streets. All that's happened is that you can no longer borrow more than you can earn so easily. Yes mortgages are down. Good! Inflation is fueled by excessive credit and most figures quoted conveniently exclude the cost of a home. Yes, those who supplied that credit and associated services will feel the pinch, but then they've had a good run and there are so many, only because it was such a free-for-all. You are right, the boom was fuelled by the greedy and those who relied on it lasting for ever and took massive risks didn't really understand it.
Originally posted by shuntquote:
Originally posted by azzzaquote:Either you are a spin doctor for the government or you are deluded?... as you yourself said in your last-but-one-post, 'The shortfall has been carried on credit' this is a FACT and not something hyped by the media. Mortgages are 50% down from this time last year and inflation is getting out of control .. again, FACT ... you quote;'so things are still really good' ... try telling that to a mortgage broker, Solicitor, estate agent ... the list goes on. ... this is not a media hyped recession at all, but a self imposed one caused by the greedy.
Originally posted by shuntquote:No, the media is stil the vital key to how it will go. We can talk ourselves into recession, destroy the confidence which makes the markets work with stories of doom and gloom and thus ensure it will become true. For instance, the press report 1.7% growth as a negative. Actually, that's pretty good. Likewise, they report redundancies in RBS, but fail to balance it with the statistic that employment levels are higher in the UK than at any point since Edward Heath became PM. Things are still really good, just not as falsely inflated as they were.
Originally posted by azzzaquote:So Shunt, it wasn't the media after all (as you've quoted before on this thread)that has created this situation, but good old fashioned economic factors.
Originally posted by shunt
Just as an indicator of why this is not so much a "Credit Crunch" as an uncomfortable return to fiscal sanity;- in the last 12 years, house prices have tripled, whereas wages have risen 63%. The shortfall has been carried on credit. A change was always inevitable. How fast it happens will determine the effects on the individual. Despite criticism and unpopularity of some of the current dampening tactics of government, I do understand the aim. Slowing the change turns a potential financial disaster into a good thing and stabilises an economy which broke loose in the eighties and has rampaged out of control ever since.
Reply ID 52158
quote:March CPI at 2.5% - unchanged since February March RPI at 3.8% - down 0.3% since February Not exactly inflation out of control, unless you have alternative stats to show otherwise. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=19
Originally posted by azzza
...inflation is getting out of control
Reply ID 52162
UK CPI last 18 months or so (YoY) % 03/08 2.5 02/08 2.5 01/08 2.2 12/07 2.1 11/07 2.1 10/07 2.1 09/07 1.8 08/07 1.8 07/07 1.9 06/07 2.4 05/07 2.5 04/07 2.8 03/07 3.1 02/07 2.8 01/07 2.7 12/06 3.0 11/06 2.7 10/06 2.4 09/06 2.4 08/06 2.5 07/06 2.4 06/06 2.5 05/06 2.2 04/06 2.0 Not a disaster by any means if u look just the last year or so ........but between 1995 to 2005 it averaged nearer 1.25%. It is high historically speaking and a very much a worry to the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.
Reply ID 52164
quote:Have you compared petrol prices, bread prices etc.. since the start of the year to now? ...
Originally posted by Stevequote:March CPI at 2.5% - unchanged since February March RPI at 3.8% - down 0.3% since February Not exactly inflation out of control, unless you have alternative stats to show otherwise. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=19
Originally posted by azzza
...inflation is getting out of control
Reply ID 52165
The CPI IS a compilation/basket of goods and services used by the public, it does not only consist of groceries.
Reply ID 52166
It always bothers me when people add "fact" to sentences. Normally it means, "That's what I heard/read/summised". There is obviously a lot of political capital to be had from the opposition bigging this up as a huge disaster, or even causing it to become one. There are some real, genuine things to blame the current government for, but this particular accusation is full of holes. A lot of the reporting is propaganda. You can't ever trust the press. Deviating from topic for a moment to illustrate:- You may have recieved a very graphically illustrated circular email, and/or read in several national newspapers, that all reference to the holocaust is being removed from the school curriculum to avoid offending Muslims. This was a rumour started by the far right-wing to deliberately incite racial hatred of British Muslims. No such plan ever existed. However, the email continues to be circulated as a "fact" by people who have no idea they are promoting Neo-Nazi propaganda.
Reply ID 52168
quote:Yes, they've gone up markedly, but you can't select a handful of items and then extend their price performance across the board to argue that they represent general inflation.
Originally posted by azzzaquote:Have you compared petrol prices, bread prices etc.. since the start of the year to now? ...
Originally posted by Stevequote:March CPI at 2.5% - unchanged since February March RPI at 3.8% - down 0.3% since February Not exactly inflation out of control, unless you have alternative stats to show otherwise. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=19
Originally posted by azzza
...inflation is getting out of control
Reply ID 52170
Shunt & Steve are desparately trying to swim against the tide ... FACT ! ;)
Reply ID 52171
Steve - I am only showing the CPI numbers the goverment releases. They currently show that prices have risen (or inflated) by 2.5% in the extensive basket of goods and services that the government deeems is a fair representation of what we we buy. One could argue that this represents a reasonable picture of what general inflation is.
Reply ID 52172
quote:Er, I think we're both saying the same thing aren't we? Are you sure you meant to direct your remarks at me in particular? [:)]
Originally posted by Frenchie
Steve - I am only showing the CPI numbers the goverment releases. They currently show that prices have risen (or inflated) by 2.5% in the extensive basket of goods and services that the government deeems is a fair representation of what we we buy. One could argue that this represents a reasonable picture of what general inflation is.
Reply ID 52174
Sorry no Steve ! - I am not sure how your name got in there :) - meant in reply to AZZA. CPI does include goods that have sky rocketrd such as petrol, bread and eggs as well as goods that have become a lot cheaper beer, clothing, computers etc
Reply ID 52181
There is no doubt that the economy, tipped from the comfy cushion of easy credit, is showing it's true state. It's not as good as the money lenders pretended it was to persuade us to borrow more, but it's actually not bad, even when stripped bare of window dressing.
Reply ID 52410
quote:08/04 - 3% inflation up 0.5% on March ......... so, are we still not heading for recession?
Originally posted by Frenchie
UK CPI last 18 months or so (YoY) % 03/08 2.5 02/08 2.5 01/08 2.2 12/07 2.1 11/07 2.1 10/07 2.1 09/07 1.8 08/07 1.8 07/07 1.9 06/07 2.4 05/07 2.5 04/07 2.8 03/07 3.1 02/07 2.8 01/07 2.7 12/06 3.0 11/06 2.7 10/06 2.4 09/06 2.4 08/06 2.5 07/06 2.4 06/06 2.5 05/06 2.2 04/06 2.0 Not a disaster by any means if u look just the last year or so ........but between 1995 to 2005 it averaged nearer 1.25%. It is high historically speaking and a very much a worry to the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.
Reply ID 52411
quote:Not necessarily, no. Inflation is not a measure of recession. Recession is when the economy contracts, ie negative growth. The reasons for the jump in inflation are nothing to do with the health of the UK economy. Fuel and food prices are the biggest drivers of the increase and these are more about global pressures.
Originally posted by azzzaquote:08/04 - 3% inflation up 0.5% on March ......... so, are we still not heading for recession?
Originally posted by Frenchie
UK CPI last 18 months or so (YoY) % 03/08 2.5 02/08 2.5 01/08 2.2 12/07 2.1 11/07 2.1 10/07 2.1 09/07 1.8 08/07 1.8 07/07 1.9 06/07 2.4 05/07 2.5 04/07 2.8 03/07 3.1 02/07 2.8 01/07 2.7 12/06 3.0 11/06 2.7 10/06 2.4 09/06 2.4 08/06 2.5 07/06 2.4 06/06 2.5 05/06 2.2 04/06 2.0 Not a disaster by any means if u look just the last year or so ........but between 1995 to 2005 it averaged nearer 1.25%. It is high historically speaking and a very much a worry to the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.
Reply ID 52413
quote:So the fact that House prices are falling (with a predicted 10-20% drop in the next 12 months, 400 hundred jobs a day are being lost in the City alone etc etc etc etc.... is not a sign of negative growth? ... I think the coffee has to be smelt here.
Originally posted by Stevequote:Not necessarily, no. Inflation is not a measure of recession. Recession is when the economy contracts, ie negative growth. The reasons for the jump in inflation are nothing to do with the health of the UK economy. Fuel and food prices are the biggest drivers of the increase and these are more about global pressures.
Originally posted by azzzaquote:08/04 - 3% inflation up 0.5% on March ......... so, are we still not heading for recession?
Originally posted by Frenchie
UK CPI last 18 months or so (YoY) % 03/08 2.5 02/08 2.5 01/08 2.2 12/07 2.1 11/07 2.1 10/07 2.1 09/07 1.8 08/07 1.8 07/07 1.9 06/07 2.4 05/07 2.5 04/07 2.8 03/07 3.1 02/07 2.8 01/07 2.7 12/06 3.0 11/06 2.7 10/06 2.4 09/06 2.4 08/06 2.5 07/06 2.4 06/06 2.5 05/06 2.2 04/06 2.0 Not a disaster by any means if u look just the last year or so ........but between 1995 to 2005 it averaged nearer 1.25%. It is high historically speaking and a very much a worry to the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.
Reply ID 52414
quote:With regards to house prices, I would argue no. It's a sign the market was overvalued. This is more of a re-adjustment. And with the city jobs, that's more to appease shareholders because of the big bank's greed and their comeuppance. Heads must rolls as they say. If retailers and small to medium business start cutting jobs for 'cost cutting' reasons then it's time to start worrying. As it is, its more of correction.
Originally posted by azzzaquote:So the fact that House prices are falling (with a predicted 10-20% drop in the next 12 months, 400 hundred jobs a day are being lost in the City alone etc etc etc etc.... is not a sign of negative growth? ... I think the coffee has to be smelt here.
Originally posted by Stevequote:Not necessarily, no. Inflation is not a measure of recession. Recession is when the economy contracts, ie negative growth. The reasons for the jump in inflation are nothing to do with the health of the UK economy. Fuel and food prices are the biggest drivers of the increase and these are more about global pressures.
Originally posted by azzzaquote:08/04 - 3% inflation up 0.5% on March ......... so, are we still not heading for recession?
Originally posted by Frenchie
UK CPI last 18 months or so (YoY) % 03/08 2.5 02/08 2.5 01/08 2.2 12/07 2.1 11/07 2.1 10/07 2.1 09/07 1.8 08/07 1.8 07/07 1.9 06/07 2.4 05/07 2.5 04/07 2.8 03/07 3.1 02/07 2.8 01/07 2.7 12/06 3.0 11/06 2.7 10/06 2.4 09/06 2.4 08/06 2.5 07/06 2.4 06/06 2.5 05/06 2.2 04/06 2.0 Not a disaster by any means if u look just the last year or so ........but between 1995 to 2005 it averaged nearer 1.25%. It is high historically speaking and a very much a worry to the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.
Reply ID 52415
quote:Depends on whether your coffee was brewed by the headline writers or the Office of National Statistics [img]../images/forum/gdp_q12008.jpg[/img]
Originally posted by azzza So the fact that House prices are falling (with a predicted 10-20% drop in the next 12 months, 400 hundred jobs a day are being lost in the City alone etc etc etc etc.... is not a sign of negative growth? ... I think the coffee has to be smelt here.
Reply ID 52416
quote:Yes, the trend is downward Steve ... next Q2 2008 is heading for negativity.
Originally posted by Stevequote:Depends on whether your coffee was brewed by the headline writers or the Office of National Statistics [img]../images/forum/gdp_q12008.jpg[/img]
Originally posted by azzza So the fact that House prices are falling (with a predicted 10-20% drop in the next 12 months, 400 hundred jobs a day are being lost in the City alone etc etc etc etc.... is not a sign of negative growth? ... I think the coffee has to be smelt here.
Reply ID 52417
quote:Just because the graph is going down doesn't make it certain that it will go into negative territory. You'll see that for 4 quarters in 2004/2005 the graph was going down but it never went below zero. What we're seeing is a slowdown, not a recession (which technically is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP).
Originally posted by azzza
Yes, the trend is downward Steve ... next Q2 2008 is heading for negativity.
Reply ID 52419
Breaking News Bank Of England Warning In Inflation Updated:10:41, Wednesday May 14, 2008 Inflation could rise to 3.7% later this year, the Bank of England has warned in its quarterly report. I've just read this at Sky News - probably a result of higher fuel costs now impacting on the inflation stats.
Reply ID 52420
quote:Fuel and food (as mentioned above). Unfortunately, the BoE's main defence against inflation - interest rates - are useless against global forces. In fact, putting up interest rates would cause more harm than good IMHO by depressing the housing market even further.
Originally posted by Woody
...probably a result of higher fuel costs now impacting on the inflation stats.
Reply ID 52421
Are we off-Hertford-Topic yet??? Can someone please e-mail me when this thread is over?? [;)]
Reply ID 52428
quote:Unemployment up 14,000 to 1.6m in Q1 2008 .....any more proof?
Originally posted by Stevequote:Fuel and food (as mentioned above). Unfortunately, the BoE's main defence against inflation - interest rates - are useless against global forces. In fact, putting up interest rates would cause more harm than good IMHO by depressing the housing market even further.
Originally posted by Woody
...probably a result of higher fuel costs now impacting on the inflation stats.
Reply ID 52837
We are entering the worst recession we will ever see in our lifetimes. June 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. producer prices increased at the quickest rate in two decades in May, increasing the odds the Bank of England will refrain from interest-rate cuts even as the economy edges toward a recession. Prices charged by factories rose 1.6 percent from April, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. That's the most since comparable records began in 1986 and double the median forecast of 32 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, prices rose 8.9 percent.
Reply ID 52838
quote:As they say in the Simpsons, 'Oh, crap'. [:(]
Originally posted by Frenchie
We are entering the worst recession we will ever see in our lifetimes. June 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. producer prices increased at the quickest rate in two decades in May, increasing the odds the Bank of England will refrain from interest-rate cuts even as the economy edges toward a recession. Prices charged by factories rose 1.6 percent from April, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. That's the most since comparable records began in 1986 and double the median forecast of 32 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, prices rose 8.9 percent.
Reply ID 52845
quote:You are spot on Frenchie....its gonner get a lot worse, Construction trade is drying up, Companies will soon start making people redunant (Recession always a good excuse to have a clear out), Petrol sky high, Food sky high....Button down the hatches put your helmets on, the **** will hit the fan soon and we will all get splattered..........................
Originally posted by Frenchie
We are entering the worst recession we will ever see in our lifetimes.
Reply ID 52849
On the other hand, fuel prices are up because the markets are talking them up, so traders don't make a loss on previous speculation. Construction is down, because we already have enough houses, but many are held in investment because the prices are high. Food has been ridiculously cheap and thus there is a huge increase in waste and obesity. High petrol prices might even persuade a few to drive less. What is certain is that doom, gloom and pessimism will produce a recession, whether or not it was inevitable anyway.
Reply ID 52857
quote:I have always admired your optimism Shunt ... but at the moment it is coming across as delusion ... admit it, this country is sinking faster than the Titanic.
Originally posted by shunt
On the other hand, fuel prices are up because the markets are talking them up, so traders don't make a loss on previous speculation. Construction is down, because we already have enough houses, but many are held in investment because the prices are high. Food has been ridiculously cheap and thus there is a huge increase in waste and obesity. High petrol prices might even persuade a few to drive less. What is certain is that doom, gloom and pessimism will produce a recession, whether or not it was inevitable anyway.
Reply ID 52858
And now some good news: "The British Retail Consortium said warmer weather in May had boosted trade with retail sales values rising 1.9% on a like-for-like basis from May 2007, when sales were up 1.8%."
Reply ID 52859
quote:As an old git who has lived through many so called "recessions", I'd say there's a whole bunch of political manouvering and press manipulation going on at the moment in an attempt to produce a deepened downturn. Somebody's paying for that and I've got a pretty good idea who, and why. If you compare reports in papers, TV news and web for inconsistencies, the only conclusion can be that the majority of figures we are being given at the moment are "made up" to suit a particular political aim. I'm not an optimist. I just dislike being manipulated.
Originally posted by azzzaquote:I have always admired your optimism Shunt ... but at the moment it is coming across as delusion ... admit it, this country is sinking faster than the Titanic.
Originally posted by shunt
On the other hand, fuel prices are up because the markets are talking them up, so traders don't make a loss on previous speculation. Construction is down, because we already have enough houses, but many are held in investment because the prices are high. Food has been ridiculously cheap and thus there is a huge increase in waste and obesity. High petrol prices might even persuade a few to drive less. What is certain is that doom, gloom and pessimism will produce a recession, whether or not it was inevitable anyway.
Reply ID 52861
Exactly, Shunt. Much of The Press has an agenda.
Reply ID 52862
Link the following info and you'll have a better idea of what's going on. The UN and Nato are experiencing a lack of credibility, which means the US has lost a large chunk of it's world influence. We have a PM who is keen to separate our connection with the US and promote European and far eastern links and has a strong fiscal record. If unseated, the most likely party to succeed has a history of asset stripping UK interests on behalf of American business and has yet to state any policy or aim. Our press is controlled from the US and it's owners are likely to lose a lot of money if the current PM stays in office and GB prospers despite the US. Nothing is ever absolute, but it is possible to calculate the most likely explanation for what the press is up to at the moment.
Reply ID 52863
Whilst always up for a good conspiracy theory Shunt I have to draw the line at "We have a PM.....strong fiscal record." The bloke has never had a proper job where he HAD to make money and that has been shown big time in his dealings of the last 11 years.
Reply ID 52866
Also, the press have now manipulated most of the population into the position where the general public over-react to every screaming headline. The terrorist threat, violent crime, child abductions, etc. It has turned the country into a bunch of knee-jerk reactionsists. If the press say that house prices will slump you can guarantee they will because people will react to the headlines.
Reply ID 52867
Sorry, but the conspiracy theory that the press have an agenda to talk up a recession is absolute rubbish. The media in general (BBC apart) rely heavily on advertising revenue. In a recession the first thing to be cut is advertising budgets. So if they really were trying to create a recession, they would be shooting themselves in the foot. The truth is that we are coming to the end of a huge bubble caused by governments (UK, GB, Australia etc) turning a blind eye to the appallingly lax lending criteria of the majority of banks which they allowed because it made people believe they were rich - "My house has trebled in value... blah blah blah". Now it's all falling apart and the previously smug Mr. Brown hasn't got a clue how to sort the mess out.
Reply ID 52876
quote:Something worth considering is that over the last 10-15 years if anybody has weakened the UN and Nato and their relative positions of influence in the world it has been the United States. Their seat on the UN Security Council and as the provider of virtually all meaningful military hardware within the Nato Alliance has provided the USA with a position of strength when riding roughshod over those organisations and its other members' concerns. So therefore I think that it is the United States' strength and not weakness that has lead to a diminution in UN/Nato credability whilst at the same time the US carries on regardless.
Originally posted by shunt
Link the following info and you'll have a better idea of what's going on. The UN and Nato are experiencing a lack of credibility, which means the US has lost a large chunk of it's world influence. We have a PM who is keen to separate our connection with the US and promote European and far eastern links and has a strong fiscal record. If unseated, the most likely party to succeed has a history of asset stripping UK interests on behalf of American business and has yet to state any policy or aim. Our press is controlled from the US and it's owners are likely to lose a lot of money if the current PM stays in office and GB prospers despite the US. Nothing is ever absolute, but it is possible to calculate the most likely explanation for what the press is up to at the moment.
Reply ID 52877
quote:Our "press" sources information from five prime sources, all of them US owned by people with much heavier US investmments than a newspaper or TV company. These ownwers of the press (as distinct from the companies) do not survive on advertising revenue, but on their ability to influence public opinion to favour their own and allies business interests. Paragraph two, I agree with completely, but to be fair to Mr Brown, it was an inherited state of affairs dating back to the 80s and the last time us press propaganda ruled politics. No politician could ever have a solution to what happened then and it has been a ticking bomb ever since.
Originally posted by aubend
Sorry, but the conspiracy theory that the press have an agenda to talk up a recession is absolute rubbish. The media in general (BBC apart) rely heavily on advertising revenue. In a recession the first thing to be cut is advertising budgets. So if they really were trying to create a recession, they would be shooting themselves in the foot. The truth is that we are coming to the end of a huge bubble caused by governments (UK, GB, Australia etc) turning a blind eye to the appallingly lax lending criteria of the majority of banks which they allowed because it made people believe they were rich - "My house has trebled in value... blah blah blah". Now it's all falling apart and the previously smug Mr. Brown hasn't got a clue how to sort the mess out.
Reply ID 52880
Surely "our" press gets its news from just one prime source... This forum! [8D]
Reply ID 52881
quote:Certainly the Herald seems to.[:D] However, even they apply their own spin by selecting which posts they quote and ignoring those which don't fit their chosen headline.
Originally posted by aubend
Surely "our" press gets its news from just one prime source... This forum! [8D]
Reply ID 52882
quote:'AN ONLINE FORUM POSTER SLAMS LOCAL NEWSPAPER' [8D]
Originally posted by shunt Certainly the Herald seems to.[:D] However, even they apply their own spin by selecting which posts they quote and ignoring those which don't fit their chosen headline.
Reply ID 52956
inflation up to 3.3% this month .. graph please Steve.
Reply ID 52958
20 Year CPI chart below - make your own mind up if we return to 1990's levels....no need to panic yet [img]../images/forum/cpi.gif[/img]
Reply ID 52959
Oh I like the no need to panic 'yet' - are we expecting to panic at all. What is causing all this trouble? Should we overthrow Gordon Brown? Up the Revolution [8D]
Reply ID 52960
isnt planning a coup illegal? ;o) I'd check there's not a blacked out car outside!
Reply ID 52967
Ah that they could park outside, or even get to my house - due to the council's current 'let's resurface every road in the district' policy. Is there a route into our out of Hertford or Ware that is unaffected by current resurfacing works?!
Reply ID 52969
quote:I reckon it's quite smart to time roadworks with a lack of petrol. No-one is going anywhere anyway. On the other hand, maybe it's a kind of house arrest and the revolutionaries don't realise it yet.
Originally posted by Kitty Kat
Ah that they could park outside, or even get to my house - due to the council's current 'let's resurface every road in the district' policy. Is there a route into our out of Hertford or Ware that is unaffected by current resurfacing works?!
Reply ID 52971
Damn - didn't realise they were keeping home!! I have an illicit stash of fuel for a variety of objects - ride on mowers, motorbikes, diesel and petrol - my jerry can collection has come in very handy over the years Might start black market trading [8D]
Reply ID 52976
quote:Jeeze! Stockpiling incendary materials too. Serious urban terrorism![:D]
Originally posted by Kitty Kat
Damn - didn't realise they were keeping home!! I have an illicit stash of fuel for a variety of objects - ride on mowers, motorbikes, diesel and petrol - my jerry can collection has come in very handy over the years Might start black market trading [8D]
Reply ID 52986
More good news: Retail sales up a whopping 3.5%! This is the strongest monthly growth figure for 22 years!
Reply ID 52987
quote:So whilst jeans for 3 quid are still available and people are still enjoying picking up electronic goods at a knock down price, next to no bugger can remortgage onto a half decent rate, or get a first time deal without a decent LTV. This is a red herring.
Originally posted by Steve
More good news: Retail sales up a whopping 3.5%! This is the strongest monthly growth figure for 22 years!
Reply ID 52988
quote:Plus inflation is at 3.3%, thus prices are higher = higher GDP
Originally posted by exiled_in_Readingquote:So whilst jeans for 3 quid are still available and people are still enjoying picking up electronic goods at a knock down price, next to no bugger can remortgage onto a half decent rate, or get a first time deal without a decent LTV. This is a red herring.
Originally posted by Steve
More good news: Retail sales up a whopping 3.5%! This is the strongest monthly growth figure for 22 years!
Reply ID 52989
The availability of too easy, too cheap mortgages is gone. Good. The inflation figures mainly driven by fuel prices, so are not affecting high street retail sales figures or GDP. It's not really bad news. It does require some sensible adjustment of attitudes.
Reply ID 52991
quote:It is extremely bad news. Thousands of people are set to lose their jobs in the next few months – they will have bills to pay, mortgages to service and food to put on the table. Anyone who thinks the current economic climate is anything other than bad news is hallucinating. Still, at least toasters are available for under £4 in your local supermarket.
Originally posted by shunt
The availability of too easy, too cheap mortgages is gone. Good. The inflation figures mainly driven by fuel prices, so are not affecting high street retail sales figures or GDP. It's not really bad news. It does require some sensible adjustment of attitudes.
Reply ID 52992
quote:Why are thousands set to lose their jobs? I work in the employment sector and though there is a constant round of redundancies and re-structures, there is no mood of doom or large-scale clear outs.
Originally posted by exiled_in_Readingquote:It is extremely bad news. Thousands of people are set to lose their jobs in the next few months – they will have bills to pay, mortgages to service and food to put on the table. Anyone who thinks the current economic climate is anything other than bad news is hallucinating. Still, at least toasters are available for under £4 in your local supermarket.
Originally posted by shunt
The availability of too easy, too cheap mortgages is gone. Good. The inflation figures mainly driven by fuel prices, so are not affecting high street retail sales figures or GDP. It's not really bad news. It does require some sensible adjustment of attitudes.
Reply ID 52994
quote:I have no idea what employment sector you work in, but I can only assume it has nothing to do with the City. I further suggest you look out for any publications bearing the mark Centre for Economics and Business Research. Last October they predicated that in 2008 the London financial sector would have 6,500 redundancies. It then raised that figure shortly after to 10,000, and it is likely to be raised again. These predications aside, Citibank announced 15,000 jobs are expected to be axed globally, London will take a big proportion of this hit. Lehman Brothers are also getting rid of more than 5,000 staff worldwide, again, many scalps will be taken in the City. Three hundred jobs have already gone in Deutsche Bank. Bank of America is shutting down its energy and trading desk in London- another load gone. Further losses are speculated at both Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley. We already know about Bear Stearns- 1,500 staff in the City accounted for there... The immediate future in the City is very bleak. Most of these people will get another city type job, but some wont. In the meantime, they probably have school fees to pay, cars to insure and put juice in, familes to feed, mortgages to pay etc etc. There is nothing good about what is happening to our economy at the moment. Those who think we are avoiding a recession are kidding themselves.
Originally posted by shuntquote:Why are thousands set to lose their jobs? I work in the employment sector and though there is a constant round of redundancies and re-structures, there is no mood of doom or large-scale clear outs.
Originally posted by exiled_in_Readingquote:It is extremely bad news. Thousands of people are set to lose their jobs in the next few months – they will have bills to pay, mortgages to service and food to put on the table. Anyone who thinks the current economic climate is anything other than bad news is hallucinating. Still, at least toasters are available for under £4 in your local supermarket.
Originally posted by shunt
The availability of too easy, too cheap mortgages is gone. Good. The inflation figures mainly driven by fuel prices, so are not affecting high street retail sales figures or GDP. It's not really bad news. It does require some sensible adjustment of attitudes.
Reply ID 52995
More good news: Jaguar Land Rover are creating 600 new jobs at their development centre in Gaydon, Warwickshire. EDF Energy are creating 300 new jobs on Wearside. Warburtons are creating 450 new jobs in Bristol. Sunseeker International are creating 350 new jobs in Portland, Dorset.
Reply ID 52996
quote:Whilst that is indeed good news, i'm sure all the city-types who live in Hertford wont relish the commute for those particular offerings.
Originally posted by Steve
More good news: Jaguar Land Rover are creating 600 new jobs at their development centre in Gaydon, Warwickshire. EDF Energy are creating 300 new jobs on Wearside. Warburtons are creating 450 new jobs in Bristol. Sunseeker International are creating 350 new jobs in Portland, Dorset.
Reply ID 52997
quote:Ah, now I see. Banking specific, you are right, just as it was information technology last year, electrical retail the year before that and isp and providers and software houses in 2005. Nobody suggests this is a good thing, but is an expected and inevitable conclusion which most business sectors have been preparing for for over two years. Only the banking sector itself seems to have had it's head in the sand, believing it's extraordinary holiday would never end. If you look at the graph above, todays figures would have been cause for celebration not so long ago. However there has been a relatively long period of exceptional fiscal good fortune, largely built on poor banking practice. It seems some thought that to be permanent.
Originally posted by exiled_in_Readingquote:I have no idea what employment sector you work in, but I can only assume it has nothing to do with the City. I further suggest you look out for any publications bearing the mark Centre for Economics and Business Research. Last October they predicated that in 2008 the London financial sector would have 6,500 redundancies. It then raised that figure shortly after to 10,000, and it is likely to be raised again. These predications aside, Citibank announced 15,000 jobs are expected to be axed globally, London will take a big proportion of this hit. Lehman Brothers are also getting rid of more than 5,000 staff worldwide, again, many scalps will be taken in the City. Three hundred jobs have already gone in Deutsche Bank. Bank of America is shutting down its energy and trading desk in London- another load gone. Further losses are speculated at both Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley. We already know about Bear Stearns- 1,500 staff in the City accounted for there... The immediate future in the City is very bleak. Most of these people will get another city type job, but some wont. In the meantime, they probably have school fees to pay, cars to insure and put juice in, familes to feed, mortgages to pay etc etc. There is nothing good about what is happening to our economy at the moment. Those who think we are avoiding a recession are kidding themselves.
Originally posted by shuntquote:Why are thousands set to lose their jobs? I work in the employment sector and though there is a constant round of redundancies and re-structures, there is no mood of doom or large-scale clear outs.
Originally posted by exiled_in_Readingquote:It is extremely bad news. Thousands of people are set to lose their jobs in the next few months – they will have bills to pay, mortgages to service and food to put on the table. Anyone who thinks the current economic climate is anything other than bad news is hallucinating. Still, at least toasters are available for under £4 in your local supermarket.
Originally posted by shunt
The availability of too easy, too cheap mortgages is gone. Good. The inflation figures mainly driven by fuel prices, so are not affecting high street retail sales figures or GDP. It's not really bad news. It does require some sensible adjustment of attitudes.
Reply ID 53017
quote:They'll have to drive Jonty and Jocasta to state school in a Ford rather than Haileybury in a Range Rover. Diddums - it's the greedy bankers that got us all in this mess in the first place.
Originally posted by exiled_in_Reading
In the meantime, they probably have school fees to pay, cars to insure and put juice in, familes to feed, mortgages to pay etc etc.
Reply ID 53046
I would suggest that for a town like Hertford this may be a very short sighted opinion. Hertford has become (like it or not) a commuter town for London. Witness the profusion of shops targeted at the bored housewife for example. The knock on effects in a town like ours of large scale redundancies in the City would affect the entire business structure. Estate Agents have been the first to feel it. Builders and Decorators will be next. How long until the beauty parlours and hairdressers in town find their business drying up because suddenly the large disposable income has vanished. Not all bankers are greedy and their are plenty of normal people on normal salaries that will find their City jobs disappearing. Aubend I hope you don't feel the effects too badly, because I fear if the City catches a bad cold, we the townsfolk of Hertford will be the ones doing the sneezing.
Reply ID 53047
quote:According to this forum Hertford has been dead as far as shopping is concerned for a long time, so I don't think a few City bankers being redundant is going to make a lot of difference. I'm pretty sure these people wouldn't give a stuff if you were made redundant so why feel sorry for them? Unless of course you are one of them. In which case, you'll have to make do with a 'normal' salary like the rest of us.
Originally posted by carlos fandango
I would suggest that for a town like Hertford this may be a very short sighted opinion. Hertford has become (like it or not) a commuter town for London. Witness the profusion of shops targeted at the bored housewife for example. The knock on effects in a town like ours of large scale redundancies in the City would affect the entire business structure. Estate Agents have been the first to feel it. Builders and Decorators will be next. How long until the beauty parlours and hairdressers in town find their business drying up because suddenly the large disposable income has vanished. Not all bankers are greedy and their are plenty of normal people on normal salaries that will find their City jobs disappearing. Aubend I hope you don't feel the effects too badly, because I fear if the City catches a bad cold, we the townsfolk of Hertford will be the ones doing the sneezing.
Reply ID 53048
Well you either didn't understand my point or you do not provide a local service or goods that requires people to part with their cash however much they get paid or where they work.
Reply ID 53049
I think it would be an unsafe assumption that a significant percentage of Hertford's population are financed entirely by a banking career, or unable to prosper elsewhere. When a single business sector shows a change, the casualties are those who are lacking broad experience, foresight and are also personally overstretched. One might say those are promoted beyond their own competence anyway, when in a highly paid financial role and their loss may improve professional standards. I still see the current scenario as a return to normality, from the extraordinary. Those who are incapable or unemployable through no fault of their own and currently live in relative poverty are unaffected by such things. Their lives will remain difficult. None of this effects the truly needy.
Reply ID 53050
I think Carlos is over estimating the number of commuting city bankers living here. I'm sure there are some but I don't personally know of any. I should imagine their spending power locally is a drop in the ocean. Hertford is largely populated by people who are now having to tighten their belts to pay the weekly shopping bill, but who at the same time see a glimmer of hope that their offspring might actually be able to afford to buy a home here one day.
Reply ID 53051
I used the financial sector as an example as that is where I work. The people earning 7 figure salaries will always be untouched by these events and there are plenty of people like that in the legal, advertising and industrial sector also. It is their employees who pay for any business downturn with their jobs and there is then a knock on effect in all the local newsagents, hairdressers, bars, restaurants etc etc. by the way, I did read somewhere that the cost of land is the imprortant part of property prices and that has a regular 18 year cycle so theoretically in 15 years it will all cost more than it does now depending on where you think we are in the cycle.
Reply ID 53052
quote:I dont think so. You must ask yourself why a semi costs upwards of 500k in Hertford, and why people are willing to pay this amount of money. I think it is a combination of people enjoying having paid 20 grand for a house in 1980-whatever and it now being worth 300k+, and those who work in the city/ Greater London being able to afford to move to a commuter town such as Hertford having lived in London. Noone, unless they work in certain public sector jobs are recession proof. The champagne socialism that shows on this site is cracking me up. Get thee down the stations at between 6-7 and you will see how many people drag their arse out of bed in the morning in Hertford to get the train to the big smoke..
Originally posted by dennismoore
I think Carlos is over estimating the number of commuting city bankers living here. I'm sure there are some but I don't personally know of any. I should imagine their spending power locally is a drop in the ocean.
Reply ID 53053
quote:I fail to understand the term 'return to normality'? .. or a 'correction in the market'? ... they are just delusionary terms made by delusionary people ... ... the reality of it was that when these transactions were taking place at the back end of last year, they were considered the norm and nothing out of the ordinary. The fact that people were willing to pay these prices is proof that they were worth the selling price at the time, making them normal. All that is happening now is that we are entering a recession and prices are bound to fall,... it's not a 'correction', just a knock-on effect I bet when prices start to rise again (which they inevitably will in time) we will be talking about the market re-establishing itself, which implies that this current deline being abnormal.
Originally posted by shunt
I think it would be an unsafe assumption that a significant percentage of Hertford's population are financed entirely by a banking career, or unable to prosper elsewhere. When a single business sector shows a change, the casualties are those who are lacking broad experience, foresight and are also personally overstretched. One might say those are promoted beyond their own competence anyway, when in a highly paid financial role and their loss may improve professional standards. I still see the current scenario as a return to normality, from the extraordinary. Those who are incapable or unemployable through no fault of their own and currently live in relative poverty are unaffected by such things. Their lives will remain difficult. None of this effects the truly needy.
Reply ID 53056
quote:You've got me sussed comrade. Cheers! (hic)
Originally posted by exiled_in_Reading The champagne socialism that shows on this site is cracking me up.
Reply ID 53058
quote:I refer to an economy not artificially propped by credit brokers. In other words, trade in goods and services, rather than speculation on numbers and talked-up confidence. As for housing, people used to refer to their flat, home, or house. Then the word "property" started to be used. I fail to understand how rising cost of housing can ever be a good thing for society, yet some have allowed themselves to be trained to think of it as so. Who want's that?-The money lenders.
Originally posted by azzzaquote:I fail to understand the term 'return to normality'? .. or a 'correction in the market'? ... they are just delusionary terms made by delusionary people ... ... the reality of it was that when these transactions were taking place at the back end of last year, they were considered the norm and nothing out of the ordinary. The fact that people were willing to pay these prices is proof that they were worth the selling price at the time, making them normal. All that is happening now is that we are entering a recession and prices are bound to fall,... it's not a 'correction', just a knock-on effect I bet when prices start to rise again (which they inevitably will in time) we will be talking about the market re-establishing itself, which implies that this current deline being abnormal.
Originally posted by shunt
I think it would be an unsafe assumption that a significant percentage of Hertford's population are financed entirely by a banking career, or unable to prosper elsewhere. When a single business sector shows a change, the casualties are those who are lacking broad experience, foresight and are also personally overstretched. One might say those are promoted beyond their own competence anyway, when in a highly paid financial role and their loss may improve professional standards. I still see the current scenario as a return to normality, from the extraordinary. Those who are incapable or unemployable through no fault of their own and currently live in relative poverty are unaffected by such things. Their lives will remain difficult. None of this effects the truly needy.
Reply ID 53059
quote:This was touched on last night on television in "How TV Changed Britain" http://www.channel4.com/history/microsites/H/how-tv-changed-britain/programme5.html "How far is TV responsible for the idea that a house is a commodity rather than a home?"
Originally posted by shunt
...As for housing, people used to refer to their flat, home, or house. Then the word "property" started to be used. I fail to understand how rising cost of housing can ever be a good thing for society, yet some have allowed themselves to be trained to think of it as so. Who want's that?-The money lenders.
Reply ID 53122
LONDON (Reuters) - The economy grew more slowly than previously thought in the first quarter as the service sector recorded its weakest performance in more than a decade, official figures showed on Friday. The Office for National Statistics said GDP rose by 0.3 percent on the quarter, revised down from 0.4 percent. That was the weakest rate in 3 years. The annual rate was also marked lower to 2.3 percent from 2.5 percent.
Reply ID 53130
Be wary of quoting one off economic figures - its fair to say that everything is not rosy in the garden but it is relatively straightforward for the media to pick up a figure over an arbitary time period and demonstrate it as being truly representative. The UK economy is a dull one and surprisingly resilient, but that does not sell newspapers or make for good TV. Hang in there folks! BBC News - 19/06/08 A record level of retail spending in May has provided a respite from gloomy economic predictions, but it has also fanned fears of higher interest rates. Sales rose by 3.5% during May, the strongest monthly growth since January 1986, statistical office figures show. Shocked analysts said the figures ran contrary to signs of a slowing economy and weak consumer confidence.
Reply ID 53133
quote:Growth is growth. I remember further back than a decade.
Originally posted by azzza
LONDON (Reuters) - The economy grew more slowly than previously thought in the first quarter as the service sector recorded its weakest performance in more than a decade, official figures showed on Friday. The Office for National Statistics said GDP rose by 0.3 percent on the quarter, revised down from 0.4 percent. That was the weakest rate in 3 years. The annual rate was also marked lower to 2.3 percent from 2.5 percent.
Reply ID 53134
quote:ie, expanded. That's good news.
Originally posted by azzza
The economy grew...
quote:ie, went up. That's good news.
Originally posted by azzza
The Office for National Statistics said GDP rose...
Reply ID 53135
quote:Well thats good. Because if I can't afford to buy petrol, heat my home, remortgage it etc, I can eat my cheap DVD player with a cheap plasma TV sauce. The things that matter to normal people are not what people are spending on the high street on tick, people are worried about their mortgage and their unavoidable living expenses.
Originally posted by Stevequote:ie, expanded. That's good news.
Originally posted by azzza
The economy grew...quote:ie, went up. That's good news.
Originally posted by azzza
The Office for National Statistics said GDP rose...
Reply ID 53144
quote:...which might persuade them not to overstretch their credit so far, drive the kids to school, or waste a third of the food they buy. Still good so far.[:)]
Originally posted by exiled_in_Readingquote:Well thats good. Because if I can't afford to buy petrol, heat my home, remortgage it etc, I can eat my cheap DVD player with a cheap plasma TV sauce. The things that matter to normal people are not what people are spending on the high street on tick, people are worried about their mortgage and their unavoidable living expenses.
Originally posted by Stevequote:ie, expanded. That's good news.
Originally posted by azzza
The economy grew...quote:ie, went up. That's good news.
Originally posted by azzza
The Office for National Statistics said GDP rose...
Reply ID 53145
quote:So increased spending on the high street is a good thing? The whole economy is a ticking time bomb....
Originally posted by shuntquote:...which might persuade them not to overstretch their credit so far, drive the kids to school, or waste a third of the food they buy. Still good so far.[:)]
Originally posted by exiled_in_Readingquote:Well thats good. Because if I can't afford to buy petrol, heat my home, remortgage it etc, I can eat my cheap DVD player with a cheap plasma TV sauce. The things that matter to normal people are not what people are spending on the high street on tick, people are worried about their mortgage and their unavoidable living expenses.
Originally posted by Stevequote:ie, expanded. That's good news.
Originally posted by azzza
The economy grew...quote:ie, went up. That's good news.
Originally posted by azzza
The Office for National Statistics said GDP rose...
Reply ID 53179
Credit crunch? Not round here. http://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_weblog/2008/05/house-prices-th.html House prices still on the up.
Reply ID 53193
arrgh. i wish things would slow down around here, it'll only make the crash bigger in this area when it hits!
Reply ID 53194
Certain streets are retaining their value, that will always happen.
Reply ID 53197
quote:[?]
Originally posted by codek2
arrgh. i wish things would slow down around here, it'll only make the crash bigger in this area when it hits!
Reply ID 53198
My own experiences, having just sold and bought a house are these:- It takes considerably longer than it did five years ago, because without high rate of inflation in property, people are choosing a home with more care, investing in their lifestyle and happiness, rather than trying to make a quick profit. The market feel is not dissimilar to that which existed prior to the boom. Nobody in the chain had any mortgage difficulties. Rates are reasonable and approvals fast. Conveyancers and solicitors are busy. With choosy and careful buyers, there's more detail involved with completing a chain. Surveyors valuations are not pessimistic about future values, assessing the area as "static to slowly rising".
Reply ID 53199
Shunt - You are amazing and always correct in my mind. Thanks for giving me so much information in all of the threads, not just this one. Someone told me that you knew everything and always had an answer for any question. Thanks.
Reply ID 53200
quote:Stressful, being a secret agent, I'd imagine.[;)]
Originally posted by James007
Shunt - You are amazing and always correct in my mind. Thanks for giving me so much information in all of the threads, not just this one. Someone told me that you knew everything and always had an answer for any question. Thanks.
Reply ID 53204
quote:
Originally posted by James007
Shunt - You are amazing and sometimes correct in my mind. Thanks for giving me so much information in all of the threads, not just this one. Someone told me that you knew everything and always had an answer for any question. Thanks.
Reply ID 53207
quote:[?][?] What's happening in this thread? It's supposed to be about credit crunch and the economy. James' posts sometimes have me baffled! I'm not sure if this is genuine admiration or pure sarcasm. I do admire forthright opinion however and James has plenty of that.
Originally posted by James007quote:
Originally posted by James007
Shunt - You are amazing and sometimes correct in my mind. Thanks for giving me so much information in all of the threads, not just this one. Someone told me that you knew everything and always had an answer for any question. Thanks.
Reply ID 53213
thats a good point Michael - And therefore has no place in this forum at all. nothing local being discussed at all.
Reply ID 53215
quote:Perhaps I should have said, "...having just bought and sold houses in Hertford, using Hertford solicitors, Hertford estate agents.....". [:D]
Originally posted by codek2
thats a good point Michael - And therefore has no place in this forum at all. nothing local being discussed at all.
Reply ID 53217
quote:You still in Bengeo with the new gaff shunt?
Originally posted by shuntquote:Perhaps I should have said, "...having just bought and sold houses in Hertford, using Hertford solicitors, Hertford estate agents.....". [:D]
Originally posted by codek2
thats a good point Michael - And therefore has no place in this forum at all. nothing local being discussed at all.
Reply ID 53218
quote:Waterford end of North Rd. I'll miss Bengeo in some ways, though I'm looking forward to the move. It's a diverse social mix here, but still retains a proper community feel.
Originally posted by exiled_in_Readingquote:You still in Bengeo with the new gaff shunt?
Originally posted by shuntquote:Perhaps I should have said, "...having just bought and sold houses in Hertford, using Hertford solicitors, Hertford estate agents.....". [:D]
Originally posted by codek2
thats a good point Michael - And therefore has no place in this forum at all. nothing local being discussed at all.
Reply ID 53353
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-22122251.rsp?pa_n=10&tr_t=buy I'm staggered to say the least.
Reply ID 53354
quote:Please post as new topic [:)]
Originally posted by exiled_in_Reading
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-22122251.rsp?pa_n=10&tr_t=buy I'm staggered to say the least.
Reply ID 53355
Regrettably my point wasn't very clear - perhaps certain estate agents think that the credit crunch is impotent in certain areas of Hertford...
Reply ID 53356
considering a tiny 3bed semi recently sold for well over 500k in staines green that may not be as bad as it appears!
Reply ID 53357
quote:Take a look at my post on 30 June.
Originally posted by exiled_in_Reading
Regrettably my point wasn't very clear - perhaps certain estate agents think that the credit crunch is impotent in certain areas of Hertford...
Reply ID 53358
quote:Yes, I read it. But I don't think it totally true. I am all for free markets, and if something is worth the money then the money will be paid for it, but I really do feel that some of the estate agents are taking the pizz in more ways than one. I will shed no tears if any of them go to the wall. http://propertysnake.co.uk/site/postcode/sg13/1 as it goes, most of the prices on that site are out of date, some by quite a margin.
Originally posted by JohnSmithquote:Take a look at my post on 30 June.
Originally posted by exiled_in_Reading
Regrettably my point wasn't very clear - perhaps certain estate agents think that the credit crunch is impotent in certain areas of Hertford...
Reply ID 53360
How a slowing of economy impacts on an area depends on the type of work people do. Manufacturing has been in constant decline anyway and many construction companies have overborrowed. Hence both are under pressure in the current climate. Hertford, however, partly by virtue of it's price, is likely to contain a higher than average civil servant, highly qualified and executive population. These employment sectors react more slowly to changes in economics, so slowly, that anything other than a disasterous down turn is over before it reaches them. To a certain extent, the highly skilled can even profit from such circumstances in the short term, since exceptional business skills are at a premium. Civil service employment is largely immune from normal market forces.
Reply ID 53362
I think it would be unsafe to assume that the majority of the working population of Hertford are Civil Servants. Ring any bells? [:)]
Reply ID 53363
Whilst I am sure many people work for county hall - how on earth and why on earth would they, or anyone else for that matter, want to buy that 2 bed property for 460k? Assuming your civil servant earns circa 50k and his wife say 30k (and that's being generous) they would have to have n the region of 150k of equity in order to afford such a place by way of mortgage assuming they can get one. I can't help but thinking it is an absurd price and they are pissing in the wind. Still, what do I know? It might well have BOSH appliances in that fitted kitchen. The only people I can see who would want that would be a) someone who is going to redevelop the plot, b) those releasing equity from a larger house. It is for my money, ridiculously overpriced.
Reply ID 53364
quote:[B)][:D][:D] However, local government is the area's largest employer. London commuters fall into many categories, including your bankers. The one thing almost all house buyers in Hertford have in common is relatively high income and those careers to be less vulnerable to economic change. Hence the effect on house prices here is less, or at least slower to change.
Originally posted by carlos fandango
I think it would be unsafe to assume that the majority of the working population of Hertford are Civil Servants. Ring any bells? [:)]
Reply ID 53369
quote:I agree that it does at first glance seem overpriced. However, what it is advertised at is not necessarily what the vendor expects to get for it, not the market value, nor anything near the previous purchase price. You might also be surprised by the earning potential of the female population these days and also by local government employees.[:0]
Originally posted by exiled_in_Reading
Whilst I am sure many people work for county hall - how on earth and why on earth would they, or anyone else for that matter, want to buy that 2 bed property for 460k? Assuming your civil servant earns circa 50k and his wife say 30k (and that's being generous) they would have to have n the region of 150k of equity in order to afford such a place by way of mortgage assuming they can get one. I can't help but thinking it is an absurd price and they are pissing in the wind. Still, what do I know? It might well have BOSH appliances in that fitted kitchen. The only people I can see who would want that would be a) someone who is going to redevelop the plot, b) those releasing equity from a larger house. It is for my money, ridiculously overpriced.
Reply ID 53371
Not a banker I might add.....but on the rest of your comment I can only agree.
Reply ID 53372
quote:Indeed. Head of HR at around 90k plus benefits. But my point was that they are unaffected by blips in the trading economy and fairly secure, rather than to suggest a particularly lucrative career.
Originally posted by 2929paulquote:I agree that it does at first glance seem overpriced. However, what it is advertised at is not necessarily what the vendor expects to get for it, not the market value, nor anything near the previous purchase price. You might also be surprised by the earning potential of the female population these days and also by local government employees.[:0]
Originally posted by exiled_in_Reading
Whilst I am sure many people work for county hall - how on earth and why on earth would they, or anyone else for that matter, want to buy that 2 bed property for 460k? Assuming your civil servant earns circa 50k and his wife say 30k (and that's being generous) they would have to have n the region of 150k of equity in order to afford such a place by way of mortgage assuming they can get one. I can't help but thinking it is an absurd price and they are pissing in the wind. Still, what do I know? It might well have BOSH appliances in that fitted kitchen. The only people I can see who would want that would be a) someone who is going to redevelop the plot, b) those releasing equity from a larger house. It is for my money, ridiculously overpriced.
Reply ID 53373
quote:Salary is irrelevant to many house buyers these days . There is a lot of people out there whose home owning Grandparents and Parents have died leaving very healthy estates . Makes you wonder what the wealth gap between homeowners and renters will be like in a couple more generations of handing down properties .
Originally posted by exiled_in_Reading
Assuming your civil servant earns circa 50k and his wife say 30k (and that's being generous) they would have to have n the region of 150k of equity in order to afford such a place by way of mortgage assuming they can get one.
Reply ID 54452
Dare I say it ... inflation up to 4.4% So, any updates on the state of the local housing market? .. I notice prices are beginning to come-down and hear that people are accepting very low offers on their houses....any confirmation of this?
Reply ID 54454
quote:4.4% is hardly high , compared to inflation rates in the '80s and there are specific reasons for it. The trick for the BOE will be to keep the response and measured and considered, rather than a hasty reaction to political pressure from the population. House prices have stopped rising and under advertised price deals are more common. That's good. If the house you sell and the one you buy are both X% lower priced, your mortgage/stamp duty/fees will be lower too. Excessive debt is mainly incouraged by inflation in housing costs. It's going to be uncomfortable for those who have relied on that inflation to overborrow, but it has to happen.
Originally posted by azzza
Dare I say it ... inflation up to 4.4% So, any updates on the state of the local housing market? .. I notice prices are beginning to come-down and hear that people are accepting very low offers on their houses....any confirmation of this?
Reply ID 54455
ah; But ACTUAL inflaction is way higher than 4.4% - it's more like 8-9%.... which true is still perhaps not high compared to the troublesome times in the 90's but is significant...
Reply ID 54459
quote:Using what metric?
Originally posted by codek2
ah; But ACTUAL inflaction is way higher than 4.4% - it's more like 8-9%....
Reply ID 54464
I must admit I can't see how inflation is at 4.4% when electricity and gas have been hiked twice in the past year by at least 30% each time, council tax by 10%, petrol by 20%,bread by 40%, eggs by 30%, my shopping bill used to be £90 per week but now is £120 at the same supermarket which is in excess of 30%. Have I missed something or am I shopping with the wrong suppliers?
Reply ID 54465
quote:The figure is 15.9% according to the Office for National Statistics.
Originally posted by Hugh
bread [up] by 40%
Reply ID 54466
Used to be 83p now £1.17, multigrain. There are statistics, more statistics, and reality.
Reply ID 54467
quote:I dont have to justify what everyone except apparently you knows, however just look here as one single case of many: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7457886.stm Food inflation alone is more than 10%. Now include fuel as Hugh mentioned and the combined total is even higher. The so-called 4.4% figure from the government is a massaged figure that cherry picks items in order to keep the value down. It includes things like flat screen tv's, which is insane, as you dont buy one of those every day, and not even every decade. ( although they for one are getting cheaper ) I think you can still get the "old" figures too, and last time i saw them they were a fair bit more than the "new" government figures..
Originally posted by Stevequote:Using what metric?
Originally posted by codek2
ah; But ACTUAL inflaction is way higher than 4.4% - it's more like 8-9%....
Reply ID 54468
quote:Yes you do if you want to be taken seriously. You can't just quote a figure and then not back it up by giving it's source. And who is this "everyone"? Have you spoke to them all?
Originally posted by codek2
I dont have to justify what everyone except apparently you knows,
quote:Indeed, it's 13.7%
Originally posted by codek2
Food inflation alone is more than 10%.
quote:... and you're cherrypicking in order to claim it's higher
Originally posted by codek2
The so-called 4.4% figure from the government is a massaged figure that cherry picks items in order to keep the value down.
quote:Yes, assuming you mean the RPI, it's "a fair bit higher" at 5%
Originally posted by codek2
I think you can still get the "old" figures too, and last time i saw them they were a fair bit more than the "new" government figures.
Reply ID 54469
Clearly not; However there's reports and interviews across all the media describing the problems of having a single inflation figure, and disbelieving the current value. At the end of the day neither you nor I are experts, but the pundits and experts themselves agree that the 4.4% is not a reflective value for the current climate. i'm not saying the figure is exactly 8-9% tho, could be more... I also do see your devils advocate play here. I suspect you also agree it's not representative, as you havent actually said otherwise.
Reply ID 54472
Just as they do with every thing else this government has massaged the figures to make it look better than it is. Thanks for ruining the country I used to be proud of you t055ers.
Reply ID 54479
Not just this government, in the Thatcher days a new inflation index was used that began lower than RPI and was quoted as "the government's preferred measure" until it overtook RPI and was quietly ditched. The RPI is supposed to be a wide reflection of spending and as it includes large ticket and optional items which tend to be electronic and therefore dropping in price it will almost always under calculate the day to day hit on your pocket which is food and fuel and housing. I could never understand how mortgage/rent costs could be excluded from RPI (except they are not retail prices, I suppose) but they are a significant part of many people's spending. What's more it is RPI that determines many benefit rate rises.
Reply ID 54481
As an alternative to ONS figures, you could use The Daily Mail's new Cost Of Living Index. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1043427/Food-price-inflation-hits-25-costing-average-family-300-year.html
Reply ID 55167
So Shunt .. with Inflation up to 4.7%, ... 500,000 job losses .... banks going bankrupt ... etc..etc... please tell us all that we are not heading for a recession!
Reply ID 55169
There can be no question about it. The only silver lining is that it is the death knell of the bunch of clowns that have been bleeding the country dry over the last few years. It is a shame that it takes this kind of situation to arise for the majority of the electorate to see what a sham the last few years have been. Perhaps they will think on when the locksmith arrives with the court appointed bailiff...
Reply ID 55170
i think after yesterdays bad day on the markets there is no getting away with the fact that the cost of living is increasing and more and more folk are going to be out of work by the end of this year. this is nothing that the press are making up....shunt ;) this is worse than the market falls of 9/11 and the dot comboom bust, batten down the hatchs the storm is about to hit.....
Reply ID 55171
Inflation as measured by the RPI is down to 4.8% (from last month's 5%)
quote:I assume you're referring to investment bankers [:D]
The only silver lining is that it is the death knell of the bunch of clowns that have been bleeding the country dry over the last few years.
Reply ID 55172
quote:No I'm not, and you will be aware that most peoples pensions are linked in someway to the stockmarket. You will also be aware that the inflation target was 2%. That's gone out of the window. If anyone thinks Labour has a snowball's chance in hell of winning the next election then they are insane. They have paralysed the Country. I for one will dance on Gordon Brown's grave when he departs this mortal coil. I don't think I will be alone.
Originally posted by Steve
Inflation as measured by the RPI is down to 4.8% (from last month's 5%)quote:I assume you're referring to investment bankers [:D]
The only silver lining is that it is the death knell of the bunch of clowns that have been bleeding the country dry over the last few years.
Reply ID 55173
quote:In city speak, yes. However the recent events only illustrate the extraordinary nature of the period before. Normally boom and bust promotes healthy caution. With years of exceptional stability, whole business communities have come to rely on excessive credit alone. What we are witnessing is a return to normal and the loss of those businesses who created this situation by trading on hyped hedge funding. Some protection for investors may be required, but the banks and shareholders can be left to burn without sympathy and should be. The real money in stocks is made in fluctuation, not stability. The rest is credit broking and it is that sector which has become overblown and ultimately collapsed. Nothing so far negates my original comments. What has been lost is that which relies on "confidence". Rumour and scaremongering has caused much of that. What is left in the pot is still more that of 20 years ago. "Recession" is a downturn in trading. If, however, the previous level was inflated by excess credit, the downturn must be viewed in perspective.
Originally posted by azzza
So Shunt .. with Inflation up to 4.7%, ... 500,000 job losses .... banks going bankrupt ... etc..etc... please tell us all that we are not heading for a recession!
Reply ID 55174
quote:The problem with that comment is, given the circumstances, who would have done better? Mine is not a political question, but one assessing the competences and track record of the candidates. The problems GB faces would exist for any other PM too. It's very easy to slag off whoever is in power during tough times, but they are in power because of the incompetence of the alternatives, who failed to produce a single coherant policy and get elected even when we thought we were in the very best of times, and still haven't now.
Originally posted by exiled_in_Readingquote:No I'm not, and you will be aware that most peoples pensions are linked in someway to the stockmarket. You will also be aware that the inflation target was 2%. That's gone out of the window. If anyone thinks Labour has a snowball's chance in hell of winning the next election then they are insane. They have paralysed the Country. I for one will dance on Gordon Brown's grave when he departs this mortal coil. I don't think I will be alone.
Originally posted by Steve
Inflation as measured by the RPI is down to 4.8% (from last month's 5%)quote:I assume you're referring to investment bankers [:D]
The only silver lining is that it is the death knell of the bunch of clowns that have been bleeding the country dry over the last few years.
Reply ID 55175
quote:So Labour are responsible for the entire global downturn? The Credit Cruch, oil prices, the failure of Lehman Brothers? I would point to Republican candidate John McCain's comments yesterday if you want to know where much of the blame lies: "Our workers are the most innovative, the hardest-working, the best-skilled, most productive, most competitive in the world. That's the American worker. And my opponents may disagree, but those fundamentals -- the American worker and their innovation, their entrepreneurship, the small business, those are the fundamentals of America, and I think they're strong. But they are being threatened today. Those fundamentals are being threatened today because of the greed and corruption that some engaged in on Wall Street, and we have got to fix it. And we have got to reform the way that they do business. And frankly my friends, our workers have been the strength of our economy, and they remain the strength of our economy today. And those fundamentals are threatened, they are threatened and at risk because some on Wall Street have treated Wall Street like a casino. So, we're going to fix it. And their efforts are not being matched at the top. From Washin gton to Wall Street, the top of our economy is broken. We've seen self-interest, greed, irresponsibility, and corruption undermine these hardworking American people. We're going to put an end to the abuses in Washington and on Wall Street that have resulted in a crisis that we are seeing unfold today. Enough is enough. Enough is enough. We're going to reform the way that Wall Street does business and put an end to the greed that has driven our markets into chaos. We'll stop multimillion-dollar payouts to CEOs that have broken the public trust. "And we'll put an end, as I said, to running Wall Street like a casino. We'll make businesses work for the benefit of their shareholders and their employees, and we'll make sure that your savings, IRAs, 401k and pensions are protected." (my emphasis)
Originally posted by exiled_in_Readingquote:No I'm not, and you will be aware that most peoples pensions are linked in someway to the stockmarket. You will also be aware that the inflation target was 2%. That's gone out of the window. If anyone thinks Labour has a snowball's chance in hell of winning the next election then they are insane. They have paralysed the Country. I for one will dance on Gordon Brown's grave when he departs this mortal coil. I don't think I will be alone.
Originally posted by Steve
Inflation as measured by the RPI is down to 4.8% (from last month's 5%)quote:I assume you're referring to investment bankers [:D]
The only silver lining is that it is the death knell of the bunch of clowns that have been bleeding the country dry over the last few years.
Reply ID 55176
quote:You might also note that most people's pensions are stock market linked because of changes made by the the previous Conservative government. If you wanted to take the risk then, you can't complain when it goes wrong.
Originally posted by exiled_in_Readingquote:No I'm not, and you will be aware that most peoples pensions are linked in someway to the stockmarket. You will also be aware that the inflation target was 2%. That's gone out of the window. If anyone thinks Labour has a snowball's chance in hell of winning the next election then they are insane. They have paralysed the Country. I for one will dance on Gordon Brown's grave when he departs this mortal coil. I don't think I will be alone.
Originally posted by Steve
Inflation as measured by the RPI is down to 4.8% (from last month's 5%)quote:I assume you're referring to investment bankers [:D]
The only silver lining is that it is the death knell of the bunch of clowns that have been bleeding the country dry over the last few years.
Reply ID 55177
There is a lot of ignorance about how the City works here, and envy is an ugly trait. Assertions that traders are greedy I really can't understand. They have a vested interest to do what they think is right- they are risk managers; this involves taking risks to make money. You will also note (despite the assertions that traders are greedy) that most traders get paid their bonuses in stock. This is now in the main worthless. Inflation is at a 16 year high. Anyone who thinks this is a "good" situation in any sense of the word is quite clearly delusional. Anyone who believes the official figures re inflation are accurate is mad, I would wager in real terms it is much higher. I don't trust this Government and when they leave office I expect a lot of unpleasant revelations to occur.
Reply ID 55178
The UK Government are as in love with off balance sheet vehicles as the most rapacious Investment Bank. Anyone seen how much Network Rail owes recently?
Reply ID 55179
£23,409,424,000 by my reckoning. Guess who has to pay that back?
Reply ID 55180
quote:On the other hand, why is there such a thing as Network Rail in the first place?
Originally posted by carlos fandango
£23,409,424,000 by my reckoning. Guess who has to pay that back?
Reply ID 55181
quote:Well, it wont be the vast majority of those who ticked the red box at the last election, because they are too busy sitting at home watching sky with their fingers up their arse to be out working and paying taxes. Speaking of taxes, what about all that NI that will no longer be coming in, or the 40%er's who supported all the doleites?
Originally posted by carlos fandango
£23,409,424,000 by my reckoning. Guess who has to pay that back?
Reply ID 55182
quote:Incompetent managers of risk, as it turns out. What happens when one is incompetent at the task for which one is employed?[;)]
Originally posted by exiled_in_Reading
There is a lot of ignorance about how the City works here, and envy is an ugly trait. Assertions that traders are greedy I really can't understand. They have a vested interest to do what they think is right- they are risk managers; this involves taking risks to make money. You will also note (despite the assertions that traders are greedy) that most traders get paid their bonuses in stock. This is now in the main worthless. Inflation is at a 16 year high. Anyone who thinks this is a "good" situation in any sense of the word is quite clearly delusional. Anyone who believes the official figures re inflation are accurate is mad, I would wager in real terms it is much higher. I don't trust this Government and when they leave office I expect a lot of unpleasant revelations to occur.
Reply ID 55183
They get kicked out, just as Gordon Brown will be very shortly.
Reply ID 55184
quote:Interesting viewpoint. Most of the payers of 40% and corporation tax that I know personally are Labour or Lib Dem supporters, having realised that they are not in the bracket who'd benefit from a Conservative government (i.e. those who pay no UK tax at all).
Originally posted by exiled_in_Readingquote:Well, it wont be the vast majority of those who ticked the red box at the last election, because they are too busy sitting at home watching sky with their fingers up their arse to be out working and paying taxes. Speaking of taxes, what about all that NI that will no longer be coming in, or the 40%er's who supported all the doleites?
Originally posted by carlos fandango
£23,409,424,000 by my reckoning. Guess who has to pay that back?
Reply ID 55185
Actually I view the current mob as pursuing a "scorched earth policy" at the moment. Lets make a real mess of the finances as we have no chance at the next election. Then when the other lot are in it will be much worse than expected and we will have a good chance to come back in in 2 electios time ( ie just out of power for 1 term). I reckon the privatisation of BR was an attempt at a similar policy.
Reply ID 55186
quote:So why did Blair last so long, when there were very good reasons to oust him? Answer, everybody looked at their wallet and ignored the future, or even basic morality, continuing as they were conditioned to do back in the eighties. Brown's getting a hard time because the past has come home to roost and he was holding the bomb when the timer ran out. I see no evidence or statement from anyone else that has anything to offer, just the frenzied cry of a opportunitist mob who see a chance to seize power without actually needing a policy. Let's face it, they've had enough time to think of one and make a meaningful statement on something......anything!
Originally posted by Victor Meldrew
They get kicked out, just as Gordon Brown will be very shortly.
Reply ID 55187
True, but Brown deserves an extra kicking as he was holding the purse strings throughout the "good" years and has wasted a unique chance in our modern history. Vince Cable is the only one of the whole lot who deserves any praise. And then not a lot.
Reply ID 55188
quote:My own view is that it's a combination of all these views. The Conservative period was basically an asset stripping execise, removing fiscal power from any political control by the voters and placing it out of our reach. They had a longer run than even they expected and didn't expect anyone following to have anything left to work with. The New Labour period has been a skilled cover up to hide that, by the time they took power, the coffers were exhausted and all future earning potential already sold off. There was no choice but to let the City run the economy and avoid admitting that. The problem is, the City screwed up and now our empty pockets are turned out for all to see. The instinct is to shout "Where's all our money gone?" at Brown, but the truth is, it was long gone before he even took office. He is perhaps guilty of not having the courage to blow the whistle, trying to re-nationlise (certainly losing office as a result), but then which polititian would do that and with what?
Originally posted by carlos fandango
True, but Brown deserves an extra kicking as he was holding the purse strings throughout the "good" years and has wasted a unique chance in our modern history. Vince Cable is the only one of the whole lot who deserves any praise. And then not a lot.
Reply ID 55189
Thatcher did at least pay off a vast chunk of the national debt in one chunk. The tens of billions we have now is a post 97 product of producing a client voter base. The fact remains that in the low interest periods if one was stupid enough to crank ones debt levels to stupid levels one is currently getting all one deserves. And lets be honest, people have been unbelievably naive over the last 11 years.
Reply ID 55190
quote:You are not wrong there. The trouble comes when that naivety is not checked by government. Blair kept quiet and played to the crowd. Brown has entered the stage with a "The party's over folks" approach. That is not going to go down well with the revellers, and hasn't.
Originally posted by carlos fandango
Thatcher did at least pay off a vast chunk of the national debt in one chunk. The tens of billions we have now is a post 97 product of producing a client voter base. The fact remains that in the low interest periods if one was stupid enough to crank ones debt levels to stupid levels one is currently getting all one deserves. And lets be honest, people have been unbelievably naive over the last 11 years.
Reply ID 55197
quote:Time to take the blinkers off mate. The country is fooked and Gordon 'no more boom and bust / golden rule' Brown is more responsible than you think. He was happy to take credit for the ten years of good times. Now he has to take flak for what it has cost us.
Originally posted by shuntquote:On the other hand, why is there such a thing as Network Rail in the first place?
Originally posted by carlos fandango
£23,409,424,000 by my reckoning. Guess who has to pay that back?
Reply ID 55198
quote:Exactly. We were also happy while we were in those "good times". What would you suggest? Who has a good idea? What is it? Certainly there's been nothing sensible put forward in all those ten years or now. Maybe we will just petulantly and randomly vote for anyone else, in protest, like London did. Or maybe.....just maybe, we could get wise and wait for somebody to come up with an idea or two, and vote for whoever that might be, when the time comes. No change of leader will make the oil price lower, or sort out the US market, or change our currency to euros in time (we liked the pound when it was strong). If Britain wants to restore confidence, it needs to look confident, not like a headless chicken.
Originally posted by aubendquote:Time to take the blinkers off mate. The country is fooked and Gordon 'no more boom and bust / golden rule' Brown is more responsible than you think. He was happy to take credit for the ten years of good times. Now he has to take flak for what it has cost us.
Originally posted by shuntquote:On the other hand, why is there such a thing as Network Rail in the first place?
Originally posted by carlos fandango
£23,409,424,000 by my reckoning. Guess who has to pay that back?
Reply ID 55199
quote:Agreed. I can't see myself voting at the next election, which saddens me as people died so that I might have the privilage. I don't think any of them offer a solution. Are we just going to replace a failing government with an untested one? For me the Tory front bench doesn't give me any more confidence than the existing administration. Many of the freedoms and values that I was brought up to believe in have been eroded by successive governments of both persuasions. Newspapers spout disinformation and hysteria crafted to appeal to their bigotted readership, whilst self-serving politicians put their careers and legacies above the real needs of the country. Interestingly, even some writing for the right-wing press are unconvinced of the Tories ability to deal with the global downturn... From The Daily Telegraph... [url="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/09/17/do1701.xml"] In this financial meltdown, who has the guts to govern Britain?[/url]
Originally posted by shunt
Maybe we will just petulantly and randomly vote for anyone else, in protest, like London did. Or maybe.....just maybe, we could get wise and wait for somebody to come up with an idea or two, and vote for whoever that might be, when the time comes. No change of leader will make the oil price lower, or sort out the US market, or change our currency to euros in time (we liked the pound when it was strong). If Britain wants to restore confidence, it needs to look confident, not like a headless chicken.
Reply ID 55200
Hi I think that Gordon Brown is a back door Prime Minister and this loop hole in parliamentry law needs to be closed I.E. If a prime minister has to leave office for any reason then a general election should be called,Gordon Brown has no mandate to be prime minister he was not elected by the people and he is not fit to govern and now M.P.s in his party are calling for him to go and then we will have another prime minister,the third in one term,sorry but I think that this is wrong and very un-democratic,so if you feel the same way please write to Mark Prisk.
Reply ID 55201
You don't vote for a Prime Minister, you vote for somebody to represent you as MP. The party with the majority then puts forward an MP to be PM. It doesn't matter that Gordon Brown wasn't voted by the electorate to be PM, neither was Tony Blair. It is the Labour party who has the majority and it is the Labour party who decides their leader. What you're looking for is US style politics. Maybe we could have a George Bush ?
Reply ID 55202
quote:Yep, Paul is spot on with that one. That's why it's called party politics. Look, the economics behind the credit crunch are astronomical and involve factors as diverse as China reaching the point where it stops just being a producer and starts consuming through to everyone having spent too much on credit. It's not Gordon Browns fault. It's not Blair's fault. Even though I'd love to blame it on the Conservatives, but for the most part, it's not their fault – their inability to manage the economy effectively after Thatcher's reforms were addressed by the 1992 market crash. What it is, is a combination of factors that otherwise by themselves wouldn't cause a major economic head, but have come together to cause major problems. And on the point of national debt. Brown finished what Thatcher started. By 1999, we had a surplus. It's just that Brown had to use that and plunge us back in to debt to keep us out of the 2005 recession that plagued Europe or have we all forgotten we weren't affected by that?
Originally posted by Paul Simon
You don't vote for a Prime Minister, you vote for somebody to represent you as MP. The party with the majority then puts forward an MP to be PM. It doesn't matter that Gordon Brown wasn't voted by the electorate to be PM, neither was Tony Blair. It is the Labour party who has the majority and it is the Labour party who decides their leader. What you're looking for is US style politics. Maybe we could have a George Bush ?
Reply ID 55205
Exactly how do these comments relate to Hertford specifically? I have been ticked off by the headmaster in the past for (allegedly) referring to matters that weren't solely pertinent to Hertford.
Reply ID 55206
Exactly. Members have 24 hours to post their closing remarks before this topic is locked.
Reply ID 55208
quote:Just becuse it doesn't JUST affect Hertford, doesn't mean it doesn't affect Hertford. This topic is of far more importance to everyone in Hertford than discussing whether or not a roundabout should be sponsored or not. It affects Hertford residents' jobs, mortgages, savings, weekly shop, petrol bill - pretty much everything, Like it or not, we are affected by what goes on in the outside world...
Originally posted by Admin
Exactly. Members have 24 hours to post their closing remarks before this topic is locked.
Reply ID 55209
When local unemployment starts to rise, will you unlock it again then? By the way, Lloyds is to buy HBOS.
Reply ID 55210
Maybe Hertford should put up sign saying "Hertford. Credit Crunch Free Zone" just like Harlow used to have signs saying "Harlow. Nuclear Free Zone".
Reply ID 55211
quote:My closing remark: Rules are there to be broken. Now, I'm off to earn a crust, which will no doubt keep the scrounging bastards who voted in this shower of ****e in Sky and cheap lager… (and just for Admin..) ..not that you get many of those types in Hertford)
Originally posted by Admin
Exactly. Members have 24 hours to post their closing remarks before this topic is locked.
Reply ID 55212
quote:Now there's a looming social problem. Having virtually criminalised the poor and unemployed, what happens when the proportion of the population who are in that trap increases? Those who have never experienced the benefit system have been encouraged to take a bigotted attitude of hatred towards those less fortunate than themselves, with adverts claiming widespread fraud that cost more than the fraud itself. Want to know what it is really like to be unemployed in this country? £84 per fortnight (often paid up to 10 days late) and compulsory imprisonment in an unused college room in Stevenage, so that you can be claimed to be "in training". Actually you just sit there, unable to search for work and gaurded to prevent you from leaving.
Originally posted by exiled_in_Readingquote:My closing remark: Rules are there to be broken. Now, I'm off to earn a crust, which will no doubt keep the scrounging bastards who voted in this shower of ****e in Sky and cheap lager… (and just for Admin..) ..not that you get many of those types in Hertford)
Originally posted by Admin
Exactly. Members have 24 hours to post their closing remarks before this topic is locked.
Reply ID 55213
quote:And here was me thinking you might put a positive spin on the situation Shunt .. we must be in trouble... so, my final words on this subject are... 'We are All Doomed' !!!
Originally posted by shuntquote:Now there's a looming social problem. Having virtually criminalised the poor and unemployed, what happens when the proportion of the population who are in that trap increases? Those who have never experienced the benefit system have been encouraged to take a bigotted attitude of hatred towards those less fortunate than themselves, with adverts claiming widespread fraud that cost more than the fraud itself. Want to know what it is really like to be unemployed in this country? £84 per fortnight (often paid up to 10 days late) and compulsory imprisonment in an unused college room in Stevenage, so that you can be claimed to be "in training". Actually you just sit there, unable to search for work and gaurded to prevent you from leaving.
Originally posted by exiled_in_Readingquote:My closing remark: Rules are there to be broken. Now, I'm off to earn a crust, which will no doubt keep the scrounging bastards who voted in this shower of ****e in Sky and cheap lager… (and just for Admin..) ..not that you get many of those types in Hertford)
Originally posted by Admin
Exactly. Members have 24 hours to post their closing remarks before this topic is locked.
Reply ID 55214
quote:Funnily enough, I saw a bloke on the local news where I am in exile yesterday. He was there, in his semi detached house, with his four children, moaning about the benefits not paying enough for his food and his children’s clothes, and what is in the corner of his room? A fvcking big plasma telly, that's what. The chances are, my gross income is no doubt a lot more than his but he probably has more disposable income than a lot of people, I included, earning middling money. Those who have a short term set back and have drive and motivation will get off their arse and do something about it. It is this system of benefits being a career option that Labour has done nothing about and is one of their key failings in my opinion. The world doesn't owe anyone a living, regardless of if they are unfortunate enough to be temporarily residing in Stevenage or not.
Originally posted by shuntquote:Now there's a looming social problem. Having virtually criminalised the poor and unemployed, what happens when the proportion of the population who are in that trap increases? Those who have never experienced the benefit system have been encouraged to take a bigotted attitude of hatred towards those less fortunate than themselves, with adverts claiming widespread fraud that cost more than the fraud itself. Want to know what it is really like to be unemployed in this country? £84 per fortnight (often paid up to 10 days late) and compulsory imprisonment in an unused college room in Stevenage, so that you can be claimed to be "in training". Actually you just sit there, unable to search for work and gaurded to prevent you from leaving.
Originally posted by exiled_in_Readingquote:My closing remark: Rules are there to be broken. Now, I'm off to earn a crust, which will no doubt keep the scrounging bastards who voted in this shower of ****e in Sky and cheap lager… (and just for Admin..) ..not that you get many of those types in Hertford)
Originally posted by Admin
Exactly. Members have 24 hours to post their closing remarks before this topic is locked.
Reply ID 55215
I would hesitate a long time before tarring the unemployed with the same brush. Whilst there are undoubtedly those who do take the system for a ride we should not allow these people to colour our judgement. The alternatives in what are supposed to be a civilised society do not bear thinking about. I was unemployed once....sponging drag on society am I?
Reply ID 55216
I would say not, unless you received more in benefits than you've paid in tax & NI, in which case I say yep!
Reply ID 55221
We have to face that modern life provides little employment for the less able. By that I do not mean the "disabled". Those we are quick to consider stupid or inadequate as adults, but see as "special needs" as children, struggle to find the simple production or sweeping up jobs which were within their capabilities. These are the long term unemployed on the whole. Insecure jobs, when they come, last a month or two and are paid minimum wage. No chance to accumulate, no cushion while one seeks to advance one's life. Chronic depression is rife, but no expensive shrinks or paid leave whilst suffering from "stress" for these guys. Of course some reach a stage when state benefit is all they can look forward to and becomes the norm. Plasma TV costs about what I might spend on a weekend break. Let's not bleat about paying 40% tax. We are very fortunate to be able to.
Reply ID 55223
quote:Yeah, it's great. It makes me feel all warm and fuzzy when I get up at 6am to go to work to know that some of my taxes are going to go to those long term unemployed, who can then go and buy a TV that's superior to mine, costing hundreds of pounds, even though I bother to go to work. Welcome to the UK 2008 folks.
Originally posted by shunt
We have to face that modern life provides little employment for the less able. By that I do not mean the "disabled". Those we are quick to consider stupid or inadequate as adults, but see as "special needs" as children, struggle to find the simple production or sweeping up jobs which were within their capabilities. These are the long term unemployed on the whole. Insecure jobs, when they come, last a month or two and are paid minimum wage. No chance to accumulate, no cushion while one seeks to advance one's life. Chronic depression is rife, but no expensive shrinks or paid leave whilst suffering from "stress" for these guys. Of course some reach a stage when state benefit is all they can look forward to and becomes the norm. Plasma TV costs about what I might spend on a weekend break. Let's not bleat about paying 40% tax. We are very fortunate to be able to.
Reply ID 55225
I blame the ease of credit (and know two people who went bankrupt before they were 25); lack of financial foresight by those who really believed "buy now, pay later" would ever be in their favour unless they saved really hard to afford the 'later' payment in one go to avoid the crippling interest rates; people beleiving in their own PR too much and having the expectation of Everything Now instead of budgeting and living within one's means while saving for what they wanted. My mum counted out the housekeeping money each week in to separate envelopes or food/petrol/fuel etc and didn't get into debts despite being a single parent with 2 kids and a small income. So we didn't get new clothes to keep up with the trends as our friends did and the sweaters went on before the heating did (Born with a silver spoon? Ha! "We had a scoop of cardboard and thought ourselves lucky![:D][:D] Joking, guys!) - but as her offspring in adult form we're not in debt with no cars on the "£199.99 pcm into perpetuity" drip, no credit cards, a modest life that some would consider a bit 'posh' forwantofaphrase and an ability to put up and shut up if there's something we want but can't afford. Importantly, we are content with our circumstances, something that I think is lacking in many of the latest generation of young adults. Our lifestyle may not be to everyone's tastes as we have a 15 year old car, Mrs P buys 2 pairs of shoes a year out of necessity[:0], and having trained ourselves out of it over the last few years we don't really like going shopping anymore (and we're young whippersnappers in our mid-30's). But I'd rather be living in a home with a mortgage and outgoings we can afford than in a position of being broke and stressed due to falling victim to the lure of conspicuous consumption.
Reply ID 55226
quote:One suspects that you only buy one bottle of Sherry a year and have never eaten in Pizza Express?. .... go on, be a devil, buy two pipes of pringles this week instead of one ;)
Originally posted by Mr P
I blame the ease of credit (and know two people who went bankrupt before they were 25); lack of financial foresight by those who really believed "buy now, pay later" would ever be in their favour unless they saved really hard to afford the 'later' payment in one go to avoid the crippling interest rates; people beleiving in their own PR too much and having the expectation of Everything Now instead of budgeting and living within one's means while saving for what they wanted. My mum counted out the housekeeping money each week in to separate envelopes or food/petrol/fuel etc and didn't get into debts despite being a single parent with 2 kids and a small income. So we didn't get new clothes to keep up with the trends as our friends did and the sweaters went on before the heating did (Born with a silver spoon? Ha! "We had a scoop of cardboard and thought ourselves lucky![:D][:D] Joking, guys!) - but as her offspring in adult form we're not in debt with no cars on the "£199.99 pcm into perpetuity" drip, no credit cards, a modest life that some would consider a bit 'posh' forwantofaphrase and an ability to put up and shut up if there's something we want but can't afford. Importantly, we are content with our circumstances, something that I think is lacking in many of the latest generation of young adults. Our lifestyle may not be to everyone's tastes as we have a 15 year old car, Mrs P buys 2 pairs of shoes a year out of necessity[:0], and having trained ourselves out of it over the last few years we don't really like going shopping anymore (and we're young whippersnappers in our mid-30's). But I'd rather be living in a home with a mortgage and outgoings we can afford than in a position of being broke and stressed due to falling victim to the lure of conspicuous consumption.
Reply ID 55228
quote:ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ I didn't realise know it alls were higher rate tax payers.
Originally posted by shunt
We have to face that modern life provides little employment for the less able. By that I do not mean the "disabled". Those we are quick to consider stupid or inadequate as adults, but see as "special needs" as children, struggle to find the simple production or sweeping up jobs which were within their capabilities. These are the long term unemployed on the whole. Insecure jobs, when they come, last a month or two and are paid minimum wage. No chance to accumulate, no cushion while one seeks to advance one's life. Chronic depression is rife, but no expensive shrinks or paid leave whilst suffering from "stress" for these guys. Of course some reach a stage when state benefit is all they can look forward to and becomes the norm. Plasma TV costs about what I might spend on a weekend break. Let's not bleat about paying 40% tax. We are very fortunate to be able to.
Reply ID 55229
quote:The sherry's for my mother. Pizza express? I'd rather go to The Tilbury And as for the pringles...I'll consider it, but they'll have to last till Christmas and get put into the Christmas Treats Box![:D]
Originally posted by azzza One suspects that you only buy one bottle of Sherry a year and have never eaten in Pizza Express?. .... go on, be a devil, buy two pipes of pringles this week instead of one ;)
Reply ID 55230
quote:We each do what we can for our families. Some can spend £1/2M on a house. Others, with no hope of any level of home ownership ever being in reach, may treat their family to £700 worth of TV.
Originally posted by exiled_in_Readingquote:Yeah, it's great. It makes me feel all warm and fuzzy when I get up at 6am to go to work to know that some of my taxes are going to go to those long term unemployed, who can then go and buy a TV that's superior to mine, costing hundreds of pounds, even though I bother to go to work. Welcome to the UK 2008 folks.
Originally posted by shunt
We have to face that modern life provides little employment for the less able. By that I do not mean the "disabled". Those we are quick to consider stupid or inadequate as adults, but see as "special needs" as children, struggle to find the simple production or sweeping up jobs which were within their capabilities. These are the long term unemployed on the whole. Insecure jobs, when they come, last a month or two and are paid minimum wage. No chance to accumulate, no cushion while one seeks to advance one's life. Chronic depression is rife, but no expensive shrinks or paid leave whilst suffering from "stress" for these guys. Of course some reach a stage when state benefit is all they can look forward to and becomes the norm. Plasma TV costs about what I might spend on a weekend break. Let's not bleat about paying 40% tax. We are very fortunate to be able to.